Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
755Releases shown
29Moved something
150Beat forecast
175Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Wednesday, September 23, 2026
19 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Gasoline Inventories | -1.686M | 0.50M | 0.794M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Distillate Inventories | -0.428M | -0.68M | 1.585M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Crude Oil Inventories | 2.969M | -0.69M | -0.640M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US S&P Services PMI Flash | 58.7 | 55.8 | 56.5 | High impact | Beat | 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN Dec26) -0.25% Gold (GC Sep26) -0.24% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) -0.23% Measured over 10 minutes from the print | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US S&P Composite PMI Flash | 58.4 | 55.3 | 56.0 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US S&P Manufacturing PMI Flash | 57.0 | 53.7 | 53.9 | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate | 7.12% | -- | 6.97% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Manufacturing PMI Flash | 52.0 | 51.5 | 51.7 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Composite PMI Flash | 51.7 | 52.0 | 52.5 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Services PMI Flash | 51.7 | 52.0 | 52.5 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Flash | 52.7 | 52.6 | 52.7 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Composite PMI Flash | 53.1 | 51.7 | 52.0 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Services PMI Flash | 53.0 | 51.4 | 51.6 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Composite PMI Flash | 53.8 | 51.8 | 51.8 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Manufacturing PMI Flash | 53.8 | 54.0 | 54.3 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Service PMI Flash | 52.9 | 49.9 | 49.7 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French Manufacturing PMI Flash | 50.3 | 51.0 | 51.1 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French Comp Flash PMI | 51.2 | 48.7 | 48.5 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French Services PMI Flash | 51.4 | 48.3 | 48.0 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move |
Tuesday, September 22, 2026
6 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Distillate Stock Change | -2.164M | -- | 1.60M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Gasoline Stock Change | -2.16M | -- | 1.50M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Crude Oil Stock Change | 1.786M | -0.50M | 7.10M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Cushing Stock Change | 2.082M | -- | -0.246M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash | -16.5 | -16.0 | -15.5 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US ADP Wkly Employment Change | 20.00k | -- | 16.25k | High impact | Gold (GC Oct26) +0.35% Measured over 10 minutes from the print |
Friday, September 18, 2026
5 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US Industrial Production MoM | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Retail Sales MoM | 0.5% | -0.2% | -0.5% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Core Retail Sales MoM | 0.6% | -0.2% | -0.9% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Core Retail Sales YoY | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.3% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Retail Sales YoY | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move |
Thursday, September 17, 2026
10 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese BoJ Rate Decision | 1.25% | 1.25% | 1.00% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Core CPI Nationwide YoY | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.8% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese CPI Overall Nationwide | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Natural Gas Change BCF | 44B | 48B | 40B | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Pending Home Sales Change MoM | 0.3% | -0.1% | -2.3% | High impact | Gold (GC Oct26) +0.29% Measured over 10 minutes from the print | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Philly Fed Business Index | 37.8 | 32.1 | 47.4 | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Initial Jobless Claims | 196.0k | 206.5k | 206.0k | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US Housing Starts | 1.275M | 1.32M | 1.239M | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK BoE Bank Rate | 3.75% | 3.75% | 3.75% | High impact | GBP/USD -0.30% EUR/GBP +0.30% Measured over 10 minutes from the print, which landed with 2 other releases at this time | ||
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone CPI YoY Final | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move |
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