Economic data › US Unemployment Rate
US Unemployment Rate: what the market did after each print
The share of the US labour force without a job and looking for one, released with the payrolls report. Below are the last 6 releases on record, each with the actual against the forecast and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes that followed.
Sample size: 6 prints on record, Mar 6, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026. A reaction was recorded on 3 of them; measurement of this series starts Jun 5, 2026. Of those, 3 produced a move large enough to show and 0 did not. The remaining 3 carry no reaction we can report.
Every print on record
This series is published in the same report, at the same minute, as US Nonfarm Payrolls. The reaction shown is the one measured at that release clock, so it belongs to the report rather than to this line of it alone.
| Release | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 20268:30 AM ET | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | In line | Gold futures -1.76% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) -0.45% 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN) -0.35% Measured over 15 minutes from the print |
| Aug 7, 20268:30 AM ET | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | Beat | No reaction recorded |
| Jul 2, 20268:30 AM ET | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | Beat | EUR/USD +0.61% USD/JPY -0.52% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) +0.39% Measured over 15 minutes from the print |
| Jun 5, 20268:30 AM ET | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | In line | 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN) -0.44% EUR/USD -0.25% Measured over 15 minutes from the print |
| May 8, 20268:30 AM ET | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | In line | No reaction recorded |
| Mar 6, 20268:30 AM ET | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | Miss | No reaction recorded |
Split by beat and miss
Only the releases that produced a measured move appear here, each listed on its own. No average is taken across them: with a sample this size an averaged figure would claim a regularity the record cannot support.
After a beat
1 measured of 2 on record- Jul 2, 2026 Actual 4.2% vs forecast 4.3% EUR/USD +0.61% USD/JPY -0.52% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) +0.39%
After a miss
0 measured of 1 on record1 on record, none with a measured move.
After an in-line print
2 measured of 3 on record- Sep 4, 2026 Actual 4.1% vs forecast 4.1% Gold futures -1.76% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) -0.45% 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN) -0.35%
- Jun 5, 2026 Actual 4.3% vs forecast 4.3% 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN) -0.44% EUR/USD -0.25%
How the move is measured
MoveSurge prices an economic release against its own clock rather than against the close. A reference level is taken just before the print reaches the tape, and the same instruments are sampled again over the window named beside each figure. The percentages above are those samples.
An instrument appears only where the measurement is attributed to this release and the move clears the band MoveSurge uses to call a move worth showing anywhere in the product. A print whose instruments all sat inside that band reads “no measurable move”, which is a measurement rather than a gap — most economic prints land there.
“No reaction recorded” is a different statement: no measurement exists for that print, or the one that exists was not attributed to it. Those prints keep their actual, forecast and previous figures and claim nothing about the market.