Economic data › US Initial Jobless Claims
US Initial Jobless Claims: what the market did after each print
First-time filings for US unemployment benefits in the prior week. A lower number is the stronger labour-market reading. Below are the last 12 releases on record, each with the actual against the forecast and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes that followed.
Sample size: 12 prints on record, Jun 25, 2026 to Sep 17, 2026. A reaction was recorded on 6 of them; measurement of this series starts May 28, 2026. Of those, 3 produced a move large enough to show and 3 did not. The remaining 6 carry no reaction we can report.
Every print on record
| Release | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 20268:30 AM ET | 196K | 206.5K | 206K | Beat | No reaction recorded |
| Sep 10, 20268:30 AM ET | 206K | 205K | 206K | Miss | Gold (GC Oct26) -0.81% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Sep26) -0.48% EUR/USD -0.23% Measured over 10 minutes from the print |
| Sep 3, 20268:30 AM ET | 206K | 205K | 203K | Miss | No reaction recorded |
| Aug 27, 20268:30 AM ET | 203K | 208K | 206K | Beat | No measurable move |
| Aug 20, 20268:30 AM ET | 206K | 210K | 209K | Beat | No measurable move |
| Aug 13, 20268:30 AM ET | 209K | 202K | 199K | Miss | No reaction recorded |
| Aug 6, 20268:30 AM ET | 199K | 205K | 197K | Beat | No reaction recorded |
| Jul 30, 20268:30 AM ET | 197K | 200K | 187K | Beat | No reaction recorded |
| Jul 23, 20268:30 AM ET | 187K | 210K | 208K | Beat | No reaction recorded |
| Jul 16, 20268:30 AM ET | 208K | 217K | 215K | Beat | No measurable move |
| Jul 2, 20268:30 AM ET | 215K | 218K | 215K | Beat | EUR/USD +0.61% USD/JPY -0.52% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) +0.39% Measured over 15 minutes from the print |
| Jun 25, 20268:30 AM ET | 215K | 225K | 226K | Beat | 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN) +0.24% Measured over 15 minutes from the print |
Split by beat and miss
Only the releases that produced a measured move appear here, each listed on its own. No average is taken across them: with a sample this size an averaged figure would claim a regularity the record cannot support.
After a beat
2 measured of 9 on record- Jul 2, 2026 Actual 215K vs forecast 218K EUR/USD +0.61% USD/JPY -0.52% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) +0.39%
- Jun 25, 2026 Actual 215K vs forecast 225K 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN) +0.24%
After a miss
1 measured of 3 on record- Sep 10, 2026 Actual 206K vs forecast 205K Gold (GC Oct26) -0.81% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Sep26) -0.48% EUR/USD -0.23%
After an in-line print
0 measured of 0 on recordNone on record.
How the move is measured
MoveSurge prices an economic release against its own clock rather than against the close. A reference level is taken just before the print reaches the tape, and the same instruments are sampled again over the window named beside each figure. The percentages above are those samples.
An instrument appears only where the measurement is attributed to this release and the move clears the band MoveSurge uses to call a move worth showing anywhere in the product. A print whose instruments all sat inside that band reads “no measurable move”, which is a measurement rather than a gap — most economic prints land there.
“No reaction recorded” is a different statement: no measurement exists for that print, or the one that exists was not attributed to it. Those prints keep their actual, forecast and previous figures and claim nothing about the market.