Economic data › US Initial Jobless Claims
US Initial Jobless Claims: what the market did after each print
First-time filings for US unemployment benefits in the prior week. A lower number is the stronger labour-market reading. Below are the last 12 releases on record, each with the actual against the forecast and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes that followed.
Sample size: 12 prints on record, Aug 13, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026. Price moves are available for 8 of them; measurement of this series starts May 28, 2026. Of those, 2 produced a move large enough to show and 6 did not. The remaining 4 carry no reaction we can report.
Every print on record
| Release | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 20268:30 AM ET | 189K | 196K | 194K | Beat | No measurable move |
| Oct 29, 20268:30 AM ET | 194K | 198K | 194K | Beat | Price data unavailable |
| Oct 22, 20268:30 AM ET | 194K | 200K | 199K | Beat | No measurable move |
| Oct 8, 20268:30 AM ET | 197K | 200K | 197K | Beat | Gold (GC Dec26) -0.21% Measured over 10 minutes from the print |
| Oct 1, 20268:30 AM ET | 197K | 200K | 197K | Beat | No measurable move |
| Sep 24, 20268:29 AM ET | 196K | 200K | 196K | Beat | No measurable move |
| Sep 17, 20268:30 AM ET | 196K | 206.5K | 206K | Beat | Price data unavailable |
| Sep 10, 20268:30 AM ET | 206K | 205K | 206K | Miss | Gold (GC Oct26) -0.81% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Sep26) -0.48% EUR/USD -0.23% Measured over 10 minutes from the print |
| Sep 3, 20268:30 AM ET | 206K | 205K | 203K | Miss | Price data unavailable |
| Aug 27, 20268:30 AM ET | 203K | 208K | 206K | Beat | No measurable move |
| Aug 20, 20268:30 AM ET | 206K | 210K | 209K | Beat | No measurable move |
| Aug 13, 20268:30 AM ET | 209K | 202K | 199K | Miss | Price data unavailable |
Split by beat and miss
Only the releases that produced a measured move appear here, each listed on its own. No average is taken across them: with a sample this size an averaged figure would claim a regularity the record cannot support.
After a beat
1 measured of 9 on record- Oct 8, 2026 Actual 197K vs forecast 200K Gold (GC Dec26) -0.21%
After a miss
1 measured of 3 on record- Sep 10, 2026 Actual 206K vs forecast 205K Gold (GC Oct26) -0.81% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Sep26) -0.48% EUR/USD -0.23%
After an in-line print
0 measured of 0 on recordNone on record.
How the move is measured
MoveSurge prices an economic release against its own clock rather than against the close. A reference level is taken just before the print reaches the news feed, and the same instruments are sampled again over the window named beside each figure. The percentages above are those samples.
An instrument appears only where the measurement is attributed to this release and the move clears the band MoveSurge uses to call a move worth showing anywhere in the product. A print whose instruments all sat inside that band reads “no measurable move”, which is a measurement rather than a gap — most economic prints land there.
“Price data unavailable” is a different statement: no measurement exists for that print, or the one that exists was not attributed to it. Those prints keep their actual, forecast and previous figures and claim nothing about the market.