Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
756Releases shown
29Moved something
150Beat forecast
175Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Thursday, September 17, 2026
3 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone CPI YoY Final | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.3% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone CPI MoM Final | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Core CPI YoY Final | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | High impact | In line | No measurable move |
Wednesday, September 16, 2026
20 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | New Zealand GDP QoQ | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | New Zealand GDP YoY | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Interest Rate Decision | 4.00% | 4.00% | 3.75% | High impact | EUR/USD -0.20% Measured over 10 minutes from the print | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Distillate Inventories | 1.585M | 0.65M | 2.087M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Crude Oil Inventories | -0.640M | -1.50M | -0.391M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Gasoline Inventories | 0.794M | -1.10M | 1.269M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Retail Sales MoM | 1.2% | 0.8% | -0.6% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Core Retail Sales MoM | 1.4% | 0.6% | -0.3% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Retail Sales YoY | 6.01% | -- | 5.01% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian House Starts, Annualized | 229.046k | 240.00k | 229.10k | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate | 6.97% | -- | 6.85% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian HICP YoY Final | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian HICP MoM Final | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian CPI YoY Final | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian CPI MoM Final | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK Core CPI MoM | 0.3% | -- | 0.2% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK CPI YoY | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK Core CPI YoY | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK Services CPI YoY | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK CPI MoM | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | High impact | In line | No measurable move |
Tuesday, September 15, 2026
17 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Core Machinery Orders MoM | -3.7% | -1.2% | 9.7% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Total Trade Balance | -1105.607B | -1058.40B | -634.50B | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Exports YoY | 19.3% | 18.4% | 23.2% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Imports YoY | 28.0% | 26.3% | 27.8% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Core Machinery Orders YoY | 11.2% | 9.6% | 16.9% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Gasoline Stock Change | 1.5M | -- | -1.9M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Cushing Stock Change | -0.246M | -- | -0.30M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Distillate Stock Change | 1.6M | -- | 2.0M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.1M | -1.8M | -0.3M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Wholesale Sales MoM | 0.3% | -0.5% | 2.8% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US ADP Wkly Employment Change | 16,250.0 | -- | 12,250.0 | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | 34.7 | 40.0 | 34.2 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German ZEW Current Conditions | -47.1 | -52.1 | -61.1 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Trade Balance | 5B | -- | 2B | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇪🇸 Spain | Spanish CPI MoM Final | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | Spanish Core CPI YoY | 2.9% | -- | 3.0% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇪🇸 Spain | Spanish CPI YoY Final | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | High impact | In line | No measurable move |
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