Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
754Releases shown
29Moved something
150Beat forecast
175Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Tuesday, September 29, 2026
16 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 50.1 | 49.8 | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Industrial Output MoM Prelim SA | -1.7% | 1.3% | -0.2% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Retail Sales YoY | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Cushing Stock Change | 0.233M | -- | 2.082M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Crude Oil Stock Change | 1.019M | -1.90M | 1.786M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Distillate Stock Change | -0.286M | -- | -2.164M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Gasoline Stock Change | 2.991M | -- | -2.16M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US CB Consumer Confidence | 81.9 | 89.0 | 89.4 | High impact | Miss | Gold (GC Dec26) +0.24% Measured over 10 minutes from the print, which landed with 1 other release at this time | |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian GDP MoM | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Industrial Sales MoM | 1.7% | -- | -1.0% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇪🇸 Spain | Spanish CPI YoY Flash | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | Spanish Retail Sales YoY SA | -0.4% | -- | -0.3% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇪🇸 Spain | Spanish CPI MoM Flash | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.70% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss KOF Indicator | 109.1 | 106.0 | 106.7 | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Leading Indicator Change Rev. | 1.5 | -- | 1.7 | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian RBA Cash Rate | 4.60% | 4.60% | 4.35% | High impact | Price data unavailable |
Friday, September 25, 2026
5 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | US University Michigan Sentiment Final | 48.1 | 47.5 | 47.8 | High impact | Beat | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) -0.30% Gold (GC Sep26) -0.23% Measured over 10 minutes from the print, which landed with 2 other releases at this time | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Durable Goods | 0.0% | -0.3% | 1.1% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇪🇸 Spain | Spanish GDP YoY | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | Spanish GDP QoQ | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Chain Store Sales YoY | 0% | -- | 0% | High impact | No measurable move |
Thursday, September 24, 2026
12 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Natural Gas Change BCF | 53B | 51B | 44B | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US New Home Sales - Units | 0.684M | 0.6155M | 0.607M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Retail Sales MoM | -0.7% | -0.8% | 0.6% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Initial Jobless Claims | 197k | 200k | 196k | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Core Retail Sales MoM | -0.7% | -0.5% | 0.5% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Business Barometer | 47.90 | -- | 57.64 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German IFO Current Conditions | 89.5 | 89.0 | 88.5 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German IFO Business Climate | 89.9 | 89.0 | 88.8 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German IFO Expectations | 90.4 | 89.3 | 89.1 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss Interest Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇫🇷 France | French Business Climate Mfg | 101 | 102 | 103 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇫🇷 France | French Business Climate Overall | 96 | 98 | 98 | High impact | No measurable move |
Wednesday, September 23, 2026
7 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Unemployment Rate | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Employment Change | 39.5k | 20.0k | -15.8k | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Participation Rate | 67.1% | 66.9% | 66.9% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Mfg PMI Flash | 54.1 | -- | 54.9 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Composite PMI Flash | 52.5 | -- | 53.5 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Gasoline Inventories | -1.686M | 0.50M | 0.794M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Distillate Inventories | -0.428M | -0.68M | 1.585M | High impact | No measurable move |
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