Economic data › US Core PCE Price Index (MoM)
US Core PCE Price Index (MoM): what the market did after each print
The month-on-month change in US personal consumption prices excluding food and energy. Below are the last 7 releases on record, each with the actual against the forecast and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes that followed.
Sample size: 7 prints on record, Feb 20, 2026 to Aug 26, 2026. A reaction was recorded on 3 of them; measurement of this series starts Apr 9, 2026. Of those, 2 produced a move large enough to show and 1 did not. The remaining 4 carry no reaction we can report.
Every print on record
| Release | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 20268:30 AM ET | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | In line | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ proxy) -0.30% Measured over 15 minutes from the print |
| Jul 30, 20268:30 AM ET | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | Beat | No reaction recorded |
| Jun 25, 20268:30 AM ET | 0.3% | 0.31% | 0.2% | Beat | 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN) +0.24% Measured over 15 minutes from the print |
| May 28, 20268:30 AM ET | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | Beat | No measurable move |
| Apr 9, 20268:30 AM ET | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | In line | No reaction recorded |
| Mar 13, 20268:30 AM ET | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | In line | No reaction recorded |
| Feb 20, 20268:30 AM ET | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | Miss | No reaction recorded |
Split by beat and miss
Only the releases that produced a measured move appear here, each listed on its own. No average is taken across them: with a sample this size an averaged figure would claim a regularity the record cannot support.
After a beat
1 measured of 3 on record- Jun 25, 2026 Actual 0.3% vs forecast 0.31% 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN) +0.24%
After a miss
0 measured of 1 on record1 on record, none with a measured move.
After an in-line print
1 measured of 3 on record- Aug 26, 2026 Actual 0.2% vs forecast 0.2% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ proxy) -0.30%
How the move is measured
MoveSurge prices an economic release against its own clock rather than against the close. A reference level is taken just before the print reaches the tape, and the same instruments are sampled again over the window named beside each figure. The percentages above are those samples.
An instrument appears only where the measurement is attributed to this release and the move clears the band MoveSurge uses to call a move worth showing anywhere in the product. A print whose instruments all sat inside that band reads “no measurable move”, which is a measurement rather than a gap — most economic prints land there.
“No reaction recorded” is a different statement: no measurement exists for that print, or the one that exists was not attributed to it. Those prints keep their actual, forecast and previous figures and claim nothing about the market.