Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
754Releases shown
29Moved something
150Beat forecast
175Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Wednesday, September 30, 2026
35 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Tankan Big Non-Mfg Index | 35 | 36 | 37 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Tankan Big Mfg Index | 24 | 25 | 22 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Gasoline Inventories | -1.684M | -1.00M | -1.686M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Crude Oil Inventories | 0.922M | -0.71M | 2.969M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Distillate Inventories | -2.251M | 0.075M | -0.428M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Consumer Spending MoM | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | High impact | Beat | Gold (GC Dec26) +0.39% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) +0.34% Measured over 10 minutes from the print, which landed with 6 other releases at this time | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US GDP Deflator SA Final | 6.1% | -- | 6.4% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | High impact | Beat | Gold (GC Dec26) +0.27% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) +0.25% Measured over 10 minutes from the print, which landed with 6 other releases at this time | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US GDP QoQ Final | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | High impact | Beat | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) +0.25% Measured over 10 minutes from the print, which landed with 6 other releases at this time | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German HICP YoY Prelim | 3.30% | 3.20% | 2.90% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German CPI YoY Prelim | 3.30% | 3.10% | 2.90% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German CPI MoM Prelim | 0.60% | 0.50% | 0.20% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate | 7.30% | -- | 7.12% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian CPI YoY Prelim | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian HICP YoY Prelim | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian CPI MoM Prelim | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian HICP MoM Prelim | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Bavaria CPI MoM | 0.6% | -- | 0.2% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Bavaria CPI YoY | 3.2% | -- | 2.9% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German North-Rhine CPI YoY | 3.3% | -- | 2.9% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German North Rhine CPI MoM | 0.6% | -- | 0.2% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Unemployment Total SA | 3.012M | -- | 2.996M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Unemployment Total NSA | 2.994M | -- | 3.061M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Unemployment Change SA | 12.0k | 0.5k | 4.0k | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Unemployment Rate | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French HICP MoM Prelim | 0.4% | -0.5% | 0.7% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French CPI YoY NSA Prelim | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French PPI YoY | 4.8% | -- | 3.4% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇫🇷 France | French CPI MoM NSA Prelim | 0.3% | -0.5% | 0.7% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French HICP YoY Prelim | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.6% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK GDP QoQ | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK GDP YoY | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move |
Tuesday, September 29, 2026
5 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | Chinese Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 51.7 | 51.5 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇨🇳 China | Chinese Services PMI | 51.6 | 51.3 | 51.4 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian CPI Trimmed Mean YoY | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian CPI YoY NSA | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | High impact | Beat | AUD/USD -0.47% Measured over 10 minutes from the print | |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Building Approvals | -6.1% | -1.0% | -3.6% | High impact | Price data unavailable |
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