Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
753Releases shown
29Moved something
150Beat forecast
175Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Monday, October 5, 2026
4 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Services PMI Final | 52.9 | 52.9 | 52.9 | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French Composite PMI | 51.1 | 51.2 | 51.2 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French Services PMI | 51.2 | 51.4 | 51.4 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Composite PMI | 51.0 | 53.2 | 53.6 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move |
Sunday, October 4, 2026
4 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Composite PMI Final | 52.3 | -- | 52.5 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Services PMI | 51.3 | -- | 51.6 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Composite PMI Final | 51.3 | -- | 50.8 | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Services PMI Final | 51.9 | -- | 51.4 | High impact | Price data unavailable |
Friday, October 2, 2026
8 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Factory Orders MoM | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Average Earnings YoY | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Nonfarm Payrolls | 29k | 90k | 162k | High impact | Miss | Gold (GC Dec26) +0.63% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) +0.38% USD/JPY -0.30% Measured over 10 minutes from the print | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Unemployment Rate | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone CPI YoY Flash | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Core CPI YoY Flash | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone CPI MoM Flash | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Retail Sales MoM | 0.30% | -- | -0.40% | High impact | No measurable move |
Thursday, October 1, 2026
19 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Unemployment Rate | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Tokyo CPI Overall | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Jobs/Applicants Ratio | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Natural Gas Change BCF | 64B | 63B | 53B | High impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) +0.26% Gold (GC Dec26) +0.22% USD/JPY -0.22% Measured over 10 minutes from the print | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 55.0 | 54.6 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final | 55.9 | 57.0 | 57.0 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Manufacturing PMI | 51.5 | -- | 53.0 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Initial Jobless Claims | 197k | 200k | 197k | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Unemployment Rate | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK Manufacturing PMI Final | 51.9 | 52.0 | 52.0 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Final | 52.9 | 52.7 | 52.7 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Unemployment Rate | 6.20% | 5.75% | 5.80% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Manufacturing PMI Final | 53.9 | 53.8 | 53.8 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French Manufacturing PMI | 50.6 | 50.3 | 50.3 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss Retail Sales YoY | 3.2% | -- | 2.3% | High impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) -0.31% Measured over 10 minutes from the print | ||
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss CPI YoY | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss Core CPI YoY | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss CPI MoM | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | High impact | In line | No measurable move |
Wednesday, September 30, 2026
5 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Trade Balance | 495M | 2000M | 1,923M | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Exports | 3.7% | -- | -3.3% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Imports | 5.8% | -- | -2.5% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Mfg PMI | 54.1 | -- | 54.1 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Tankan Big Non-Mfg Index | 35 | 36 | 37 | High impact | No measurable move |
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