Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
753Releases shown
29Moved something
150Beat forecast
175Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Tuesday, October 13, 2026
6 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¨π³ China | Chinese CPI YoY | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US Existing Home Sales | 3.99M | 3.95M | 3.98M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US ADP Wkly Employment Change | 24.75k | -- | 23.75k | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German CPI MoM Final | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German HICP YoY Final | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German CPI YoY Final | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable |
Monday, October 12, 2026
2 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese PPI MoM | -0.3% | 0.5% | -0.2% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese PPI YoY | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move |
Friday, October 9, 2026
5 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US University Michigan Sentiment Prelim | 46.3 | 47.6 | 48.1 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Unemployment Rate | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Participation Rate | 64.8% | 65.0% | 65.0% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.30% | 2.30% | 2.00% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Employment Change | -68.3k | 10.0k | -41.7k | High impact | Miss | USD/CAD +0.41% Measured over 10 minutes from the print |
Thursday, October 8, 2026
3 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Natural Gas Change BCF | 85B | 82B | 64B | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Wholesale Sales MoM | 1.8% | -- | 0.8% | High impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) +0.21% Measured over 10 minutes from the print | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Initial Jobless Claims | 197k | 200k | 197k | High impact | Beat | Gold (GC Dec26) -0.21% Measured over 10 minutes from the print |
Wednesday, October 7, 2026
7 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Current Account NSA Yen | 4062.0B | 3172.3B | 2.0,988.9B | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Distillate Inventories | -0.042M | -1.52M | -2.251M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Crude Oil Inventories | -3.186M | 1.915M | 0.922M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Gasoline Inventories | 0.382M | -1.611M | -1.684M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate | 7.49% | -- | 7.30% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German Industrial Production MoM | 2.0% | 0.5% | -1.1% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Industrial Production YoY SA | 2.33% | 0.70% | -1.63% | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable |
Tuesday, October 6, 2026
10 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Gasoline Stock Change | -1.40M | -- | 2.991M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Distillate Stock Change | 0.461M | -- | -0.286M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Crude Oil Stock Change | -2.10M | -- | 1.019M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Cushing Stock Change | 0.866M | -- | 0.233M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Trade Balance | 4.20B | 1.50B | 0.77B | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US Trade Balance | -105.60B | -102.05B | -88.60B | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US ADP Wkly Employment Change | 23.75k | -- | 20.00k | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Retail Sales YoY | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Retail Sales MoM | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.6% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Industrial Orders MoM | -10.6% | -1.0% | 2.5% | High impact | No measurable move |
Monday, October 5, 2026
7 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 55.0 | 55.4 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US S&P Composite PMI Final | 58.4 | 58.3 | 58.4 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US S&P Services PMI Final | 58.8 | 58.7 | 58.7 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Composite PMI Final | 52.0 | 51.7 | 51.7 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Services PMI Final | 53.0 | 53.0 | 53.0 | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Composite Final PMI | 53.1 | 53.1 | 53.1 | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Composite PMI Final | 53.8 | 53.8 | 53.8 | High impact | In line | No measurable move |
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