Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
753Releases shown
29Moved something
150Beat forecast
175Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
10 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Distillate Stock Change | -2.6M | -- | -1.5M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Gasoline Stock Change | -2.577M | -- | 1.10M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Pending Home Sales Change MoM | -7.3% | -0.5% | 0.3% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US ADP Wkly Employment Change | 18.50k | -- | 24.75k | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German ZEW Current Conditions | -35.9 | -44.5 | -47.1 | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German ZEW Economic Sentiment | 28.1 | 30.0 | 34.7 | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Employment Change SA | 13k | -8k | -26k | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Unemployment Rate | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Unemployment Change | 30.3k | -- | 27.8k | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Employment Change 3M/3M | 102k | 5k | 67k | High impact | Beat | No measurable move |
Monday, October 19, 2026
10 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¨π³ China | Chinese PBoC Interest Rate 5 Yr | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.50% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π³ China | Chinese PBoC Interest Rate 1 Yr | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI Trim | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI YoY | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian BoC Core CPI MoM | 0.0% | -- | 0.1% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Core CPI MoM | 0.1% | -- | 0.2% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI Median | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI MoM | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.1% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian BoC Core CPI YoY | 2.2% | -- | 2.4% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI Common | 2.4% | -- | 2.6% | High impact | No measurable move |
Sunday, October 18, 2026
6 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¨π³ China | Chinese Unemployment Rate | 5.200% | 5.30% | 5.300% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¨π³ China | Chinese Retail Sales YoY | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¨π³ China | Chinese Urban Investment YTD YoY | -7.2% | -7.3% | -7.2% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π³ China | Chinese Industrial Output YoY | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π¨π³ China | Chinese GDP QoQ SA | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¨π³ China | Chinese GDP YoY | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.3% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move |
Wednesday, October 14, 2026
12 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Core Machinery Orders MoM | 5.2% | 2.3% | -3.7% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Core Machinery Orders YoY | 18.6% | 15.6% | 11.2% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Cushing Stock Change | 1.823M | -- | 0.866M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Crude Oil Stock Change | -11.12M | 1.90M | -2.09M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Core CPI YoY | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US CPI MoM | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US CPI YoY | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US Core CPI MoM | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | High impact | Miss | Gold spot (XAUUSD) -1.20% 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN Dec26) -0.77% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) -0.77% Measured over 10 minutes from the print | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate | 7.50% | -- | 7.49% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πͺπΈ Spain | Spanish Core CPI YoY | 3.1% | -- | 2.9% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πͺπΈ Spain | Spanish CPI MoM Final | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΈ Spain | Spanish CPI YoY Final | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | High impact | In line | No measurable move |
Tuesday, October 13, 2026
2 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¨π³ China | Chinese PPI YoY | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π³ China | Chinese CPI MoM | 0.2% | -- | 0.4% | High impact | No measurable move |
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