Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
753Releases shown
29Moved something
150Beat forecast
175Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Tuesday, October 27, 2026
1 release| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US ADP Wkly Employment Change | 16.75k | -- | 18.50k | High impact | No measurable move |
Monday, October 26, 2026
4 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Service PPI | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German IFO Expectations | 91.6 | 90.0 | 90.4 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German IFO Current Conditions | 88.8 | 89.8 | 89.5 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German IFO Business Climate | 90.2 | 89.9 | 89.9 | High impact | No measurable move |
Friday, October 23, 2026
18 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US University Michigan Sentiment Final | 48.0 | 46.3 | 46.3 | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US S&P Manufacturing PMI Flash | 56.0 | 55.5 | 55.9 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US S&P Services PMI Flash | 57.9 | 58.0 | 58.8 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Retail Sales MoM | 1.2% | 1.3% | -0.7% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Core Retail Sales MoM | 1.2% | 1.1% | -0.7% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Composite PMI Flash | 53.1 | 51.7 | 52.0 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Manufacturing PMI Flash | 52.8 | 51.8 | 51.9 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Services PMI Flash | 53.1 | 51.8 | 52.1 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Flash | 52.4 | 52.8 | 52.9 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Manufacturing PMI Flash | 54.2 | 53.5 | 53.9 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Composite PMI Flash | 52.8 | 53.4 | 53.8 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Service PMI Flash | 51.7 | 52.5 | 52.9 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French Manufacturing PMI Flash | 49.3 | 50.5 | 50.6 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Retail Sales MoM | -0.4% | -0.1% | 0.5% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Retail Sales YoY | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.4% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Core Retail Sales YoY | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.7% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Core Retail Sales MoM | -0.7% | -0.1% | 0.6% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Chain Store Sales YoY | 1% | -- | 0% | High impact | No measurable move |
Thursday, October 22, 2026
5 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Core CPI Nationwide YoY | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese CPI Overall Nationwide | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Natural Gas Change BCF | 77B | 78B | 67B | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash | -17.9 | -17.0 | -16.5 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US Initial Jobless Claims | 194k | 200k | 199k | High impact | Beat | No measurable move |
Wednesday, October 21, 2026
8 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π³πΏ New Zealand | New Zealand CPI QoQ | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π³πΏ New Zealand | New Zealand CPI YoY | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate | 7.41% | -- | 7.50% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Services CPI YoY | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK CPI YoY | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK CPI MoM | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Core CPI MoM | 0.2% | -- | 0.3% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Core CPI YoY | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | High impact | In line | No measurable move |
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
4 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Total Trade Balance | -536.5B | -210.4B | -1.0,111.9B | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Imports YoY | 18.9% | 20.4% | 28.0% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Exports YoY | 16.7% | 21.3% | 19.3% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Cushing Stock Change | 0.936M | -- | 1.823M | High impact | No measurable move |
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