Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
753Releases shown
29Moved something
150Beat forecast
175Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Thursday, October 29, 2026
19 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Retail Sales YoY | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Industrial Output MoM Prelim SA | 2.2% | 1.2% | -2.4% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Jobs/Applicants Ratio | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Tokyo CPI Overall | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Unemployment Rate | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Natural Gas Change BCF | 80B | 72B | 77B | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone ECB Interest Rate | 2.65% | 2.65% | 2.65% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone ECB Deposit Rate | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US PCE Price Index MoM | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Consumer Spending MoM | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US PCE Price Index YoY | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US GDP QoQ Advance | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Initial Jobless Claims | 194k | 198k | 194k | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US GDP Price Index | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | High impact | Miss | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) -0.23% Measured over 10 minutes from the print, which landed with 1 other release at this time | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Unemployment Rate | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | High impact | Miss | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) +0.23% Measured over 10 minutes from the print | |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | Spanish Retail Sales YoY SA | -1.4% | -- | -0.4% | High impact | Price data unavailable |
Wednesday, October 28, 2026
7 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Interest Rate Decision | 4% | 4% | 4% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Gasoline Inventories | 3.870M | -1.00M | -2.952M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Distillate Inventories | -1.462M | -1.075M | 1.675M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Crude Oil Inventories | -1.892M | 0.00M | -3.060M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian BoC Rate Decision | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.25% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate | 7.37% | -- | 7.41% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Industrial Sales MoM | -0.9% | -- | 1.7% | High impact | No measurable move |
Tuesday, October 27, 2026
14 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | New Zealand Cash Rate | 2.75% | 3.00% | 2.75% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian CPI YoY | 3.9% | -- | 4.0% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian CPI YoY NSA | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ | 1.0% | -- | 0.7% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian RBA Weighted Mean CPI YoY | 3.6% | -- | 3.6% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian CPI QoQ | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Distillate Stock Change | 0.38M | -- | -2.60M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Gasoline Stock Change | 2.39M | -- | -2.577M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Cushing Stock Change | -0.453M | -- | 0.936M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US New Home Sales - Units | 0.676M | 0.6505M | 0.684M | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US CB Consumer Confidence | 91.7 | 81.0 | 81.9 | High impact | Beat | Gold (GC Dec26) +0.26% Measured over 10 minutes from the print | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Durable Goods | 1.8% | 1.9% | -0.1% | High impact | No measurable move |
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