Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
761Releases shown
29Moved something
152Beat forecast
175Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Wednesday, August 5, 2026
5 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | US S&P Composite PMI Final | 54.5 | -- | 53.6 | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate | 6.81% | -- | 6.76% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK Composite PMI Final | 52.2 | 52.1 | 52.1 | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Composite Final PMI | 52.0 | 51.9 | 51.9 | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French Services PMI | 49.6 | 49.8 | 49.8 | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable |
Tuesday, August 4, 2026
12 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | Chinese Services PMI | 50.4 | 53.7 | 54.1 | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Composite PMI Final | 52.7 | -- | 53.1 | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Services PMI | 51.2 | -- | 51.9 | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | New Zealand Unemployment Rate | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | New Zealand Participation Rate | 70.7% | 70.4% | 70.4% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Gasoline Stock Change | 0.20M | -- | 0.918M | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Crude Oil Stock Change | 2.70M | -2.00M | -3.296M | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Cushing Stock Change | 2.40M | -- | 0.273M | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Distillate Stock Change | -1.20M | -- | -0.125M | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Manufacturing PMI | 53.5 | -- | 53.0 | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Trade Balance | 3.86B | 3.00B | 4.24B | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Retail Sales MoM | -0.10% | -- | 0.20% | High impact | Price data unavailable |
Monday, August 3, 2026
8 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | US ISM Manufacturing PMI | 55.6 | 53.9 | 53.3 | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final | 53.9 | 53.8 | 53.8 | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK Manufacturing PMI Final | 51.9 | 52.8 | 52.8 | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Final | 51.9 | 52.0 | 52.0 | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Manufacturing PMI Final | 52.2 | 52.2 | 52.2 | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French Manufacturing PMI | 49.8 | 50.0 | 50.0 | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Swiss CPI MoM | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Swiss CPI YoY | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable |
Sunday, August 2, 2026
2 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | Chinese Manufacturing PMI | 50.9 | 52.0 | 51.7 | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Mfg PMI | 54.5 | -- | 54.7 | High impact | No measurable move |
Friday, July 31, 2026
8 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian GDP MoM | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Core CPI YoY Flash | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone CPI YoY Flash | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French CPI YoY NSA Prelim | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French CPI MoM NSA Prelim | 0.6% | 0.3% | -0.3% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French HICP YoY Prelim | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French HICP MoM Prelim | 0.6% | 0.3% | -0.3% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | Swiss Retail Sales YoY | 1.5% | -- | 3.5% | High impact | Price data unavailable |
Thursday, July 30, 2026
5 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese BoJ Rate Decision | 1% | 1% | 1% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Natural Gas Change BCF | 28B | 35B | 32B | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US GDP QoQ Advance | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US GDP Price Index | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German CPI YoY Prelim | 2.80% | 2.70% | 2.30% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable |
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