Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
757Releases shown
29Moved something
150Beat forecast
175Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Tuesday, August 18, 2026
7 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US Pending Home Sales Change MoM | -2.3% | 0.0% | -5.4% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Housing Starts | 1.239M | 1.345M | 1.427M | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US ADP Wkly Employment Change | 9.50k | -- | 8.25k | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Employment Change SA | -13k | 0k | -4k | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Unemployment Change | -11.0k | 16.5k | 6.7k | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Employment Change 3M/3M | 83k | 130k | 147k | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Unemployment Rate | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move |
Monday, August 17, 2026
8 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI Common | 2.7% | -- | 2.6% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI Trim | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Core CPI MoM | 0.2% | -- | 0.2% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian BoC Core CPI MoM | 0.2% | -- | 0.1% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI Median | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian BoC Core CPI YoY | 2.3% | -- | 2.1% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI MoM | 0.5% | 0.4% | -0.4% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI YoY | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move |
Sunday, August 16, 2026
2 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¨π³ China | Chinese Unemployment Rate | 5.200% | 5.10% | 5.000% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| π¨π³ China | Chinese Retail Sales YoY | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable |
Friday, August 14, 2026
12 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US University Michigan Sentiment Prelim | 51.0 | 55.0 | 55.2 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US Retail Sales YoY | 5.01% | -- | 6.72% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Retail Sales MoM | -0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US Core Retail Sales MoM | -0.3% | 0.2% | -0.2% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone GDP YoY Flash Estimate | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone GDP QoQ Flash Estimate | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Trade Balance | 2B | -- | -5B | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π«π· France | French HICP MoM Final | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French HICP YoY Final | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French CPI YoY NSA | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French CPI MoM NSA | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | High impact | In line | No measurable move |
Thursday, August 13, 2026
10 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Natural Gas Change BCF | 36B | 31B | 33B | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πͺπΈ Spain | Spanish Core CPI YoY | 3.0% | -- | 2.9% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πͺπΈ Spain | Spanish CPI MoM Final | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| πͺπΈ Spain | Spanish CPI YoY Final | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK GDP YoY Prelim | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Manufacturing Production MoM | -0.5% | -0.1% | 0.1% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK GDP Estimate 3M/3M | 0.4% | -- | 0.7% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK GDP Estimate YoY | 1.1% | -- | 1.3% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK GDP Estimate MoM | 0.30% | -0.05% | 0.10% | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK GDP QoQ Prelim | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable |
Wednesday, August 12, 2026
1 release| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese PPI MoM | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable |
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