Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
756Releases shown
29Moved something
150Beat forecast
175Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Tuesday, August 25, 2026
5 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US ADP Wkly Employment Change | 11.75k | -- | 9.50k | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German GDP QoQ Final | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German GDP YoY Final NSA | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Leading Indicator Change Rev. | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Chain Store Sales YoY | 0% | -- | -2% | High impact | No measurable move |
Friday, August 21, 2026
9 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash | -15.5 | -16.0 | -15.9 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Core Retail Sales MoM | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.2% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Retail Sales MoM | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French Business Climate Mfg | 103 | 101 | 101 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π«π· France | French Business Climate Overall | 98 | 98 | 97 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Core Retail Sales MoM | -0.9% | -0.5% | 1.1% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Core Retail Sales YoY | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.4% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Retail Sales MoM | -0.5% | -0.5% | 1.0% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Retail Sales YoY | 1.6% | 2.2% | 4.2% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move |
Thursday, August 20, 2026
5 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Composite PMI Flash | 53.4 | -- | 52.7 | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Core CPI Nationwide YoY | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.6% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese CPI Overall Nationwide | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Natural Gas Change BCF | 16B | 14B | 36B | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Philly Fed Business Index | 47.40 | 24.75 | 41.40 | High impact | No measurable move |
Wednesday, August 19, 2026
14 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian Unemployment Rate | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian Participation Rate | 66.9% | 66.9% | 67.0% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian Employment Change | -15.8k | 12.0k | 76.3k | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π³ China | Chinese PBoC Interest Rate 5 Yr | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.50% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π³ China | Chinese PBoC Interest Rate 1 Yr | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate | 6.77% | -- | 6.77% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone CPI YoY Final | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone CPI MoM Final | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.1% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Core CPI YoY Final | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Core CPI YoY | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Services CPI YoY | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK CPI YoY | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK CPI MoM | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Core CPI MoM | 0.2% | -- | 0.3% | High impact | No measurable move |
Tuesday, August 18, 2026
7 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian Wage Price Index QoQ | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian Wage Price Index YoY | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Gasoline Stock Change | 1.076M | -- | -1.531M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Crude Oil Stock Change | -0.328M | -- | 9.072M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Distillate Stock Change | -2.797M | -- | -0.596M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Cushing Stock Change | -1.438M | -- | 1.571M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Pending Home Sales Change MoM | -2.3% | 0.0% | -5.4% | High impact | No measurable move |
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