Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
756Releases shown
29Moved something
150Beat forecast
175Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Monday, August 31, 2026
9 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Mfg PMI | 54.9 | -- | 55.1 | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German CPI MoM Prelim | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.80% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German CPI YoY Prelim | 2.90% | 3.00% | 2.80% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Bavaria CPI MoM | 0.2% | -- | 0.6% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Bavaria CPI YoY | 2.9% | -- | 2.8% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German North-Rhine CPI YoY | 2.9% | -- | 2.7% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German North Rhine CPI MoM | 0.2% | -- | 0.9% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Saxony CPI MoM | 0.1% | -- | 0.7% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Saxony CPI YoY | 2.9% | -- | 2.8% | High impact | No measurable move |
Friday, August 28, 2026
16 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Prelim Benchmark Payrolls Revision | -79K | 183K | -911K | High impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) -0.32% EUR/USD -0.22% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 5 other releases at this time | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian GDP QoQ Annualized | 3.3% | 3.4% | -0.1% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian GDP MoM | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Industrial Sales MoM | -1.0% | -- | 0.6% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Unemployment Rate | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Unemployment Total NSA | 3.061M | -- | 3.007M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Unemployment Total SA | 2.996M | -- | 2.993M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Unemployment Change SA | 4.0k | 4.8k | 6.0k | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇪🇸 Spain | Spanish Retail Sales YoY SA | -0.3% | -- | 0.5% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇪🇸 Spain | Spanish CPI MoM Flash | 0.70% | 0.60% | 0.30% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | Spanish CPI YoY Flash | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French CPI MoM NSA Prelim | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French GDP QoQ Final | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French CPI YoY NSA Prelim | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French HICP YoY Prelim | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French HICP MoM Prelim | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move |
Thursday, August 27, 2026
4 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Tokyo CPI Overall | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Unemployment Rate | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Natural Gas Change BCF | 15B | 15B | 16B | High impact | No measurable move |
Wednesday, August 26, 2026
4 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Capital Expenditure QoQ | -3.6% | 0.8% | 6.5% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US GDP QoQ 2nd Estimate | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | High impact | In line | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ proxy) -0.30% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 13 other releases at this time | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US GDP Price Index | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | High impact | Beat | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ proxy) -0.30% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 13 other releases at this time | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate | 6.78% | -- | 6.77% | High impact | No measurable move |
Tuesday, August 25, 2026
7 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian CPI Trimmed Mean YoY | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian CPI YoY NSA | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Cushing Stock Change | 1.00M | -- | -1.438M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Distillate Stock Change | -0.50M | -- | -2.797M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Gasoline Stock Change | -3.20M | -- | 1.076M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Crude Oil Stock Change | 4.20M | 1.90M | -0.328M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US New Home Sales - Units | 0.607M | 0.62M | 0.628M | High impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) -0.24% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 3 other releases at this time |
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