Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
756Releases shown
29Moved something
150Beat forecast
175Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Thursday, September 3, 2026
1 release| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss Core CPI YoY | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move |
Wednesday, September 2, 2026
8 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | Chinese Services PMI | 51.4 | 50.6 | 50.4 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Trade Balance | 1,923M | 1500M | 1,929M | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Exports | -3.3% | -- | 9.6% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Imports | -2.5% | -- | -0.2% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Services PMI | 52.5 | -- | 52.3 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Composite PMI Final | 53.5 | -- | 53.4 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian BoC Rate Decision | 2.25% | 2.25% | 2.25% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate | 6.79% | -- | 6.78% | High impact | Price data unavailable |
Tuesday, September 1, 2026
28 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | New Zealand Cash Rate | 2.75% | 2.75% | 2.50% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Real GDP QoQ | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Real GDP YoY | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Crude Oil Stock Change | -2.6M | -- | 4.2M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Cushing Stock Change | 0.2M | -- | 1.0M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Distillate Stock Change | -0.3M | -- | -0.5M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Gasoline Stock Change | 0.3M | -- | -3.2M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.6 | 55.2 | 55.6 | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final | 53.9 | 53.4 | 53.2 | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Manufacturing PMI | 53.0 | -- | 53.5 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian CPI YoY Prelim | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian HICP MoM Prelim | 0.1% | 0.3% | -1.0% | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian CPI MoM Prelim | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Unemployment Rate | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian HICP YoY Prelim | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Core CPI YoY Flash | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone CPI YoY Flash | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone CPI MoM Flash | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Unemployment Rate | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK Manufacturing PMI Final | 51.7 | 51.5 | 51.5 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Final | 52.7 | 52.8 | 52.8 | High impact | Miss | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) -0.27% Measured over 15 minutes from the print | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian GDP QoQ Final | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian GDP YoY Final | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Manufacturing PMI Final | 54.3 | 54.1 | 54.1 | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French Manufacturing PMI | 51.1 | 51.5 | 51.5 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss Retail Sales YoY | 2.3% | -- | 1.5% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK Nationwide House Price YoY | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK Nationwide House Price MoM | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | High impact | Price data unavailable |
Monday, August 31, 2026
3 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | Chinese Manufacturing PMI | 51.5 | 51.0 | 50.9 | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Current Account Balance | -27.2B | -- | -27.1B | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Building Approvals | -3.6% | -5.0% | 7.2% | High impact | Price data unavailable |
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