Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
756Releases shown
29Moved something
150Beat forecast
175Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Tuesday, September 8, 2026
6 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | Chinese CPI YoY | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇨🇳 China | Chinese PPI YoY | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Crude Oil Stock Change | -0.3M | -1.3M | -2.6M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Cushing Stock Change | -0.3M | -- | 0.2M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Distillate Stock Change | 2.0M | -- | -0.3M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Gasoline Stock Change | -1.9M | -- | 0.3M | High impact | No measurable move |
Monday, September 7, 2026
7 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Current Account NSA Yen | 2988.9B | 2849.5B | -92.3B | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese GDP Rev QoQ Annualised | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese GDP QoQ Revised | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone GDP QoQ Revised | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone GDP YoY Revised | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Industrial Production YoY SA | -1.63% | 0.00% | 0.00% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Industrial Production MoM | -1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move |
Friday, September 4, 2026
11 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Participation Rate | 65.0% | 65.1% | 65.1% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.00% | 2.90% | 3.00% | High impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) -0.45% 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN) -0.35% Dow fut (YM) -0.24% Measured over 15 minutes from the print | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Average Earnings YoY | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Employment Change | -41.7k | 15.0k | 75.1k | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Nonfarm Payrolls | 162k | 55k | -23k | High impact | Beat | Gold (GC Sep26) -1.76% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Sep26) -0.45% 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN Dec26) -0.35% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 2 other releases at this time | |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Unemployment Rate | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | High impact | In line | Gold futures -1.76% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) -0.45% 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN) -0.35% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 2 other releases at this time | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Retail Sales YoY | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Retail Sales MoM | -0.6% | 0.2% | -0.3% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Retail Sales MoM | -0.40% | -- | -0.10% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Industrial Orders MoM | 2.5% | 0.3% | 3.1% | High impact | No measurable move |
Thursday, September 3, 2026
16 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Natural Gas Change BCF | 30B | 31B | 15B | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US ISM Services PMI | 55.4 | 54.1 | 54.1 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US S&P Services PMI Final | 56.5 | 56.8 | 56.8 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US S&P Composite PMI Final | 56.0 | 56.1 | 56.0 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Trade Balance | 0.77B | 3.175B | 3.86B | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK Composite PMI Final | 52.5 | 52.5 | 52.5 | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Composite Final PMI | 52.0 | 52.1 | 52.1 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Services PMI Final | 51.6 | 51.7 | 51.7 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Composite PMI Final | 51.8 | 51.0 | 51.0 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Services PMI Final | 49.7 | 48.5 | 48.5 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French Services PMI | 48.0 | 48.4 | 48.4 | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French Composite PMI | 48.5 | 48.8 | 48.8 | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Composite PMI | 53.6 | 53.1 | 52.5 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss GDP YoY | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.5% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss CPI YoY | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss CPI MoM | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.1% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move |
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