Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
756Releases shown
29Moved something
150Beat forecast
175Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Tuesday, September 15, 2026
8 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π«π· France | French CPI YoY NSA | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French CPI MoM NSA | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French HICP YoY Final | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French HICP MoM Final | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Unemployment Rate | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Employment Change SA | -26k | -5k | -13k | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Employment Change 3M/3M | 67k | 67k | 83k | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Unemployment Change | 27.8k | 5.0K | -11.0k | High impact | No measurable move |
Monday, September 14, 2026
11 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¨π³ China | Chinese Retail Sales YoY | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π³ China | Chinese Unemployment Rate | 5.300% | 5.20% | 5.200% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π³ China | Chinese Urban Investment YTD YoY | -7.2% | -7.1% | -6.7% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI YoY | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Core CPI MoM | 0.2% | -- | 0.2% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI Common | 2.6% | -- | 2.7% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI Trim | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian BoC Core CPI MoM | 0.1% | -- | 0.2% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian BoC Core CPI YoY | 2.4% | -- | 2.3% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI Median | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI MoM | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.5% | High impact | In line | No measurable move |
Friday, September 11, 2026
9 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US University Michigan Sentiment Prelim | 47.8 | 51.0 | 51.7 | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US CPI MoM | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US Core CPI MoM | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US Core CPI YoY | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US CPI YoY | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.9% | 0.2% | -0.5% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK GDP Estimate 3M/3M | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK GDP Estimate MoM | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK GDP Estimate YoY | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move |
Thursday, September 10, 2026
9 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese PPI YoY | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese PPI MoM | -0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Natural Gas Change BCF | 40B | 34B | 30B | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Wholesale Sales MoM | 0.8% | -- | -3.0% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Existing Home Sales | 3.98M | 3.98M | 4.06M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone ECB Deposit Rate | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.25% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone ECB Interest Rate | 2.65% | 2.65% | 2.40% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German CPI MoM Final | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German CPI YoY Final | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable |
Wednesday, September 9, 2026
2 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US ADP Wkly Employment Change | 12.00k | -- | 11.75k | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate | 6.85% | -- | 6.79% | High impact | No measurable move |
Tuesday, September 8, 2026
1 release| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¨π³ China | Chinese CPI MoM | 0.4% | -- | -0.1% | High impact | No measurable move |
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