Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
1987Releases shown
83Moved something
258Beat forecast
288Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Sunday, October 18, 2026
2 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π³πΏ New Zealand | New Zealand Exports | 6.47B | -- | 6.66B | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π³πΏ New Zealand | New Zealand Trade Balance | -1,971.0M | -- | -1,349.0M | Medium impact | Price data unavailable |
Wednesday, October 14, 2026
27 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π°π· South Korea | South Korean Imports Revised | 26.0% | -- | 26.0% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π°π· South Korea | South Korean Trade Balance Revised | 49.97B | -- | 49.85B | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π°π· South Korea | South Korean Exports Revised | 83.7% | -- | 83.5% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Core Machinery Orders MoM | 5.2% | 2.3% | -3.7% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Core Machinery Orders YoY | 18.6% | 15.6% | 11.2% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Cushing Stock Change | 1.823M | -- | 0.866M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Crude Oil Stock Change | -11.12M | 1.90M | -2.09M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Core CPI YoY | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US CPI MoM | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Building Permits MoM | 8.8% | 3.0% | -17.3% | Medium impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US CPI YoY | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US Core CPI MoM | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | High impact | Miss | Gold spot (XAUUSD) -1.20% 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN Dec26) -0.77% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) -0.77% Measured over 10 minutes from the print | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US MBA Mortgage Applications | -2.7% | -- | -4.2% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate | 7.50% | -- | 7.49% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German 30 Yr Bund Bid-to-cover | 1.4 | -- | 1.6 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German 30 Yr Bund Yield | 3.8% | -- | 3.8% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK 4 Yr Bid-to-Cover | 3.415 | -- | 3.237 | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK 4 Yr Gilt Yield | 4.945% | -- | 4.786% | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| πͺπΈ Spain | Spanish HICP YoY Final | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | Medium impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| πͺπΈ Spain | Spanish Core CPI YoY | 3.1% | -- | 2.9% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πͺπΈ Spain | Spanish CPI MoM Final | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΈ Spain | Spanish CPI YoY Final | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΈ Spain | Spanish HICP MoM Final | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | Medium impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| πΈπͺ Sweden | Swedish CPI MoM | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Wholesale Price Index MoM | 1.9% | -- | 0.9% | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΈπͺ Sweden | Swedish CPI YoY | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Wholesale Price Index YoY | 8.7% | -- | 6.8% | Low impact | No measurable move |
Tuesday, October 13, 2026
11 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¨π³ China | Chinese PPI YoY | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π³ China | Chinese CPI MoM | 0.2% | -- | 0.4% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π³ China | Chinese CPI YoY | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π³πΏ New Zealand | New Zealand External Migration & Visitors | 8.0% | -- | 8.5% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π³πΏ New Zealand | New Zealand Visitor Arrivals | 1530 | -- | 3,010 | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 3-Month Bill High Yield | 4.085% | -- | 4.050% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 3-Month Bill Bid-to-Cover | 2.68 | -- | 2.510 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 3-Month Awarded High | 36.710% | -- | 21.300% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 6-Month Awarded High | 78.17% | -- | 40.620% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 6-Month Bill High Yield | 4.20% | -- | 4.165% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 6-Month Bill Bid-to-Cover | 2.76 | -- | 2.790 | Medium impact | No measurable move |
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