Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
1987Releases shown
83Moved something
258Beat forecast
288Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Friday, October 23, 2026
11 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π©πͺ Germany | German Manufacturing PMI Flash | 54.2 | 53.5 | 53.9 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Composite PMI Flash | 52.8 | 53.4 | 53.8 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Service PMI Flash | 51.7 | 52.5 | 52.9 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French Manufacturing PMI Flash | 49.3 | 50.5 | 50.6 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French Services PMI Flash | 48.4 | 50.7 | 51.2 | Medium impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French Comp Flash PMI | 48.4 | 50.3 | 51.1 | Medium impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Retail Sales MoM | -0.4% | -0.1% | 0.5% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Retail Sales YoY | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.4% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Core Retail Sales YoY | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.7% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Core Retail Sales MoM | -0.7% | -0.1% | 0.6% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Chain Store Sales YoY | 1% | -- | 0% | High impact | No measurable move |
Thursday, October 22, 2026
28 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Mfg PMI Flash | 53.3 | -- | 54.1 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Composite PMI Flash | 52.3 | -- | 52.3 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Core CPI Nationwide YoY | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese CPI Overall Nationwide | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian Composite PMI Flash | 47.7 | -- | 51.3 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian Manufacturing PMI Flash | 49.7 | -- | 49.6 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian Services PMI Flash | 47.8 | -- | 51.9 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 5-Year TIPS High Yield | 2.367% | -- | 1.955% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 5-Year TIPS Bid-to-Cover | 2.410 | -- | 2.610 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 4-Week Bill Bid-to-Cover | 2.820 | -- | 2.560 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 4-Week Bill High Yield | 3.945% | -- | 4.000% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Kansas City Fed Manufacturing | 16 | 16 | 20 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Kansas City Fed Composite Index | 11 | 12 | 14 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Natural Gas Change BCF | 77B | 78B | 67B | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash | -17.9 | -17.0 | -16.5 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US Leading Index Change MoM | 0.0% | -0.1% | -0.1% | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian PPI MoM | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | Medium impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US Continued Jobless Claims | 1.728M | 1.71M | 1.710M | Medium impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian PPI YoY | 14.5% | -- | 13.5% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian RMPI MoM | 4.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Initial Jobless Claims | 194k | 200k | 199k | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πΉπ· Turkey | Turkish Weekly Repo Rate | 36.00% | 36.00% | 37.00% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Business Barometer | 50.00 | -- | 47.90 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK CBI Orders | -32 | -20 | -9 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK CBI Business Optimism | -27 | -40 | -36 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π«π· France | French Business Climate Mfg | 105 | 101 | 101 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π«π· France | French Business Climate Overall | 97.0 | 95.5 | 96.0 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π³π± Netherlands | Dutch Consumer Confidence Adjusted | -34 | -- | -33 | Medium impact | No measurable move |
Wednesday, October 21, 2026
1 release| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π°π· South Korea | South Korean Bank of Korea Base Rate | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | Medium impact | No measurable move |
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