Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
1987Releases shown
83Moved something
261Beat forecast
289Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Monday, August 3, 2026
2 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π©πͺ Germany | German Real Retail Sales MoM | -1.1% | -0.3% | 1.1% | Medium impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| π³π± Netherlands | Dutch Retail Sales YoY | 4.3% | -- | 1.2% | High impact | Price data unavailable |
Sunday, August 2, 2026
3 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¨π³ China | Chinese Manufacturing PMI | 50.9 | 52.0 | 51.7 | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Mfg PMI | 54.5 | -- | 54.7 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π°π· South Korea | South Korean Manufacturing PMI | 53.1 | -- | 52.1 | High impact | Price data unavailable |
Friday, July 31, 2026
23 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π°π· South Korea | South Korean Imports Prelim | 26.5% | 27.9% | 30.0% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π°π· South Korea | South Korean Trade Balance Prelim | 30.32B | 29.487B | 36.09B | Medium impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| π°π· South Korea | South Korean Exports Prelim | 62.8% | 60.6% | 70.7% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | 588 | -- | 587 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 451 | -- | 450 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Budget Balance | -0.31B | -- | -1.05B | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US University Michigan Sentiment Final | 55.2 | 54.0 | 54.4 | Medium impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US University Michigan 5 Yr Inflation Final | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | Medium impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US University Michigan Conditions Final | 54.8 | 54.6 | 54.9 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US University Michigan 1 Yr Inflation Final | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | Medium impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US University Michigan Expectations Final | 55.4 | 53.5 | 54.0 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Chicago PMI | 57.6 | 56.0 | 56.7 | Medium impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian GDP MoM | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US Employment Costs | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone CPI YoY Flash | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Core CPI YoY Flash | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| π«π· France | French CPI MoM NSA Prelim | 0.6% | 0.3% | -0.3% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| π«π· France | French HICP YoY Prelim | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| π«π· France | French CPI YoY NSA Prelim | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| π«π· France | French HICP MoM Prelim | 0.6% | 0.3% | -0.3% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| π¨π Switzerland | Swiss Retail Sales YoY | 1.5% | -- | 3.5% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π³π΄ Norway | Norwegian Unemployment Rate NSA | 2.1% | -- | 1.9% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Housing Starts YoY | 18.6% | 12.7% | 33.9% | Medium impact | Beat | Price data unavailable |
Thursday, July 30, 2026
12 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese BoJ Rate Decision | 1% | 1% | 1% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian Private Sector Credit | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π¨π³ China | Chinese NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI | 49.0 | 50.0 | 50.2 | Medium impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| π¨π³ China | Chinese Composite PMI | 49.3 | -- | 50.6 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π¨π³ China | Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.1 | 50.3 | Medium impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian PPI QoQ | 1.3% | -- | 0.4% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 4-Week Bill High Yield | 3.630% | -- | 3.730% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 4-Week Bill Bid-to-Cover | 2.800 | -- | 2.790 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Natural Gas Change BCF | 28B | 35B | 32B | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Real Personal Consumption MoM | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Personal Income MoM | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | Medium impact | In line | Price data unavailable |
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