Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
1987Releases shown
83Moved something
261Beat forecast
289Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Wednesday, August 12, 2026
4 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German CPI MoM Final | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German CPI YoY Final | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German HICP YoY Final | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | Medium impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German HICP MoM Final | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | Medium impact | In line | Price data unavailable |
Tuesday, August 11, 2026
19 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | South Korean Unemployment Rate | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Cushing Stock Change | 1.571M | -- | 2.40M | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Distillate Stock Change | -0.596M | -- | -1.20M | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Gasoline Stock Change | -1.531M | -- | 0.20M | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US API Crude Oil Stock Change | 9.072M | -0.50M | 2.70M | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US 3-Year Note High Yield | 4.291% | -- | 4.179% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US 3-Year Note Bid-to-Cover | 2.710 | -- | 2.600 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Existing Home Sales | 4.06M | 4.05M | 4.09M | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Existing Home Sales change | -1.7% | -1.0% | -2.4% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Redbook YoY | 8.3% | -- | 8.7% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US ADP Wkly Employment Change | 8.25k | -- | 15.00k | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US NFIB Business Optimism Index | 99.80 | 97.50 | 97.40 | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German 5 Yr Bobl Yield | 2.93% | -- | 2.89% | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German 5 Yr Bobl Bid-to-Cover | 1.5 | -- | 1.5 | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Trade Balance EU | 1.577B | -- | 0.845B | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian International Trade Balance | 4.232B | -- | 4.793B | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian RBA Cash Rate | 4.35% | 4.35% | 4.35% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | Dutch CPI MoM | 1.6% | -- | -0.6% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | Dutch CPI YoY | 3.2% | -- | 2.9% | High impact | Price data unavailable |
Monday, August 10, 2026
11 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian NAB Business Confidence | -6 | -- | -5 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian NAB Business Conditions | 4 | -- | 3 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK BRC Retail Sales YoY | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | Low impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US 6-Month Bill Bid-to-Cover | 2.850 | -- | 2.980 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US 3-Month Bill Bid-to-Cover | 2.880 | -- | 2.610 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US 3-Month Bill High Yield | 3.735% | -- | 3.750% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US 6-Month Bill High Yield | 3.830% | -- | 3.855% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index | 0.9 | -0.5 | -3.1 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇳🇴 Norway | Norwegian CPI YoY | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | Norwegian CPI MoM | 1.0% | -- | -0.2% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Economy Watchers Poll | 45.7 | 44.5 | 44.0 | Low impact | Price data unavailable |
Friday, August 7, 2026
6 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Consumer Credit | 14.17B | 11.85B | -0.18B | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | 588 | -- | 588 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 454 | -- | 451 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US NY Fed 1 Yr Inflation Expectations | 3.63% | 3.69% | 3.67% | Medium impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Ivey PMI | 55.1 | -- | 56.2 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Average Earnings YoY | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | High impact | Price data unavailable |
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