Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
1987Releases shown
83Moved something
258Beat forecast
288Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Monday, August 17, 2026
13 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US 3-Month Bill High Yield | 3.715% | -- | 3.735% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 33 | 34 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI Common | 2.7% | -- | 2.6% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian BoC Core CPI YoY | 2.3% | -- | 2.1% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI Median | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US NY Fed Manufacturing | 20.60 | 10.00 | 15.60 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI YoY | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI MoM | 0.5% | 0.4% | -0.4% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian BoC Core CPI MoM | 0.2% | -- | 0.1% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian CPI Trim | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Core CPI MoM | 0.2% | -- | 0.2% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π³π΄ Norway | Norwegian Trade Balance | 84.30B | -- | 61.90B | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Capacity Utilization MoM | 4.1% | -- | 0.1% | Medium impact | No measurable move |
Sunday, August 16, 2026
5 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¨π³ China | Chinese Industrial Output YoY | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | Medium impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| π¨π³ China | Chinese Unemployment Rate | 5.200% | 5.10% | 5.000% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| π¨π³ China | Chinese Retail Sales YoY | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| π¨π³ China | Chinese Urban Investment YTD YoY | -6.7% | -6.2% | -5.7% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π¨π³ China | Chinese New House Prices YoY | -3.2% | -- | -3.3% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable |
Friday, August 14, 2026
22 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π°π· South Korea | South Korean Exports Revised | 63.0% | -- | 62.8% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π°π· South Korea | South Korean Trade Balance Revised | 30.39B | -- | 30.32B | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π°π· South Korea | South Korean Imports Revised | 26.5% | -- | 26.5% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 455 | -- | 454 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | 593 | -- | 588 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US University Michigan Expectations Prelim | 50.6 | 55.2 | 55.4 | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US University Michigan Sentiment Prelim | 51.0 | 55.0 | 55.2 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US University Michigan 1 Yr Inflation Prelim | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | Low impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US University Michigan 5 Yr Inflation Prelim | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | Low impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US Business Inventories MoM | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US University Michigan Condition Prelim | 51.8 | 54.8 | 54.8 | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Retail Sales YoY | 5.01% | -- | 6.72% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Core Retail Sales MoM | -0.3% | 0.2% | -0.2% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Manufacturing Sales MoM | 0.1% | -0.1% | 1.3% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Retail Sales MoM | -0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone GDP YoY Flash Estimate | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Trade Balance NSA | 8.6B | -- | -7.8B | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone GDP QoQ Flash Estimate | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Trade Balance | 2B | -- | -5B | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Employment Change QoQ Flash | 0.1% | -- | 0.1% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π«π· France | French CPI YoY NSA | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | High impact | In line | No measurable move |
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