Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
1987Releases shown
83Moved something
258Beat forecast
288Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Tuesday, August 25, 2026
3 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π©πͺ Germany | German GDP YoY Final SA | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | Medium impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Chain Store Sales YoY | 0% | -- | -2% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Leading Indicator Change Rev. | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | High impact | No measurable move |
Monday, August 24, 2026
7 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US 6-Month Bill High Yield | 3.790% | -- | 3.780% | Medium impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) +0.27% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 3 other releases at this time | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 3-Month Awarded High | 97.660% | -- | 44.680% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 3-Month Bill High Yield | 3.715% | -- | 3.715% | Medium impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) +0.27% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 3 other releases at this time | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 3-Month Bill Bid-to-Cover | 3.080 | -- | 2.860 | Medium impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) +0.27% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 3 other releases at this time | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 6-Month Bill Bid-to-Cover | 3.050 | -- | 2.970 | Medium impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) +0.27% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 3 other releases at this time | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 6-Month Awarded High | 59.640% | -- | 18.550% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Chicago National Activity Index | -0.08 | -0.09 | -0.02 | Medium impact | No measurable move |
Friday, August 21, 2026
30 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | 588 | -- | 593 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 452 | -- | 455 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash | -15.5 | -16.0 | -15.9 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US S&P Services PMI Flash | 56.8 | 54.0 | 54.6 | Medium impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US S&P Composite PMI Flash | 56.0 | 54.0 | 54.5 | Medium impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US S&P Manufacturing PMI Flash | 53.2 | 53.9 | 53.9 | Medium impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Core Retail Sales MoM | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.2% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Retail Sales MoM | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Services PMI Flash | 52.8 | 51.8 | 52.1 | Medium impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Manufacturing PMI Flash | 51.5 | 51.5 | 51.9 | Medium impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Composite PMI Flash | 52.5 | 51.6 | 52.2 | Medium impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Flash | 52.8 | 51.8 | 51.9 | Medium impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Composite PMI Flash | 52.1 | 51.7 | 52.0 | Medium impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Services PMI Flash | 51.7 | 51.5 | 51.7 | Medium impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Service PMI Flash | 48.5 | 50.1 | 49.8 | Medium impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Manufacturing PMI Flash | 54.1 | 52.1 | 52.2 | Medium impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Composite PMI Flash | 51.0 | 51.3 | 51.3 | Medium impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French Comp Flash PMI | 48.8 | 49.5 | 49.4 | Medium impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French Manufacturing PMI Flash | 51.5 | 50.0 | 49.8 | Medium impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French Services PMI Flash | 48.4 | 49.4 | 49.6 | Medium impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French Business Climate Mfg | 103 | 101 | 101 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π«π· France | French Business Climate Overall | 98 | 98 | 97 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK PSNB ex Banks | 1.800B | -- | 15.989B | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Retail Sales YoY | 1.6% | 2.2% | 4.2% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πΈπͺ Sweden | Swedish Unemployment Rate | 7.8% | -- | 9.9% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΈπͺ Sweden | Swedish Unemployment Rate SA | 8.60% | 8.75% | 8.90% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Core Retail Sales YoY | 2.3% | 3.3% | 5.4% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Core Retail Sales MoM | -0.9% | -0.5% | 1.1% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Retail Sales MoM | -0.5% | -0.5% | 1.0% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π³π± Netherlands | Dutch Consumer Confidence Adjusted | -34 | -- | -35 | Medium impact | No measurable move |
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