Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
1987Releases shown
83Moved something
258Beat forecast
288Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Wednesday, August 26, 2026
12 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US Core PCE Prices Prelim | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | Medium impact | Miss | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ proxy) -0.30% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 13 other releases at this time | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US GDP Price Index | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | High impact | Beat | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ proxy) -0.30% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 13 other releases at this time | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US PCE Prices Prelim | 5.3% | -- | 5.1% | Low impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ proxy) -0.32% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 13 other releases at this time | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Real Personal Consumption MoM | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | Medium impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ proxy) -0.30% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 13 other releases at this time | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US MBA Mortgage Applications | -1.0% | -- | -0.4% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate | 6.78% | -- | 6.77% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK CBI Distributive Trades | -48 | -35 | -26 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German 15 Yr Bid-to-Cover | 2.0 | -- | 1.8 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German 15 Yr Bund Yield | 3.50% | -- | 3.46% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π Switzerland | Swiss ZEW Expectations | 12.1 | -- | 10.0 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΈπͺ Sweden | Swedish PPI YoY | 6.4% | -- | 7.4% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΈπͺ Sweden | Swedish PPI MoM | 0.1% | -- | 0.1% | Medium impact | No measurable move |
Tuesday, August 25, 2026
28 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian CPI Trimmed Mean YoY | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian CPI YoY NSA | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian Construction Work Done QoQ | -2.1% | 0.4% | 3.4% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Service PPI | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | Medium impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Cushing Stock Change | 1.00M | -- | -1.438M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Distillate Stock Change | -0.50M | -- | -2.797M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Gasoline Stock Change | -3.20M | -- | 1.076M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Crude Oil Stock Change | 4.20M | 1.90M | -0.328M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 2-Year Note High Yield | 4.204% | -- | 4.315% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 2-Year Note Bid-to-Cover | 2.600 | -- | 2.660 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Richmond Fed Comp. Index | 4 | 7 | 5 | Medium impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) -0.24% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 3 other releases at this time | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US New Home Sales - Units | 0.607M | 0.62M | 0.628M | High impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) -0.24% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 3 other releases at this time | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US New Home Sales Change MoM | -10.5% | -1.4% | 1.6% | Low impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) -0.24% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 3 other releases at this time | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US CB Consumer Confidence | 89.4 | 90.2 | 90.8 | Medium impact | Miss | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) -0.24% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 3 other releases at this time | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US House Price Index YoY | 2.3% | -- | 2.2% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US House Price Index MoM | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US CaseShiller 20 YoY | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Redbook YoY | 9.1% | -- | 7.6% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US ADP Wkly Employment Change | 11.75k | -- | 9.50k | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German 2 Yr Schatz Yield | 2.85% | -- | 2.78% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German 2 Yr Schatz Bid-to-Cover | 1.5 | -- | 1.4 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German IFO Current Conditions | 88.5 | 87.0 | 86.5 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German IFO Expectations | 89.1 | 87.5 | 86.7 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German IFO Business Climate | 88.8 | 87.2 | 86.6 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π«π· France | French Consumer Confidence | 86 | 87 | 86 | Medium impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German GDP YoY Final NSA | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German GDP QoQ Final | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German GDP YoY Final SA | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | Medium impact | Beat | Price data unavailable |
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