Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
1987Releases shown
83Moved something
258Beat forecast
288Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Monday, September 7, 2026
5 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss Unemployment Rate Unadjusted | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | Low impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss Unemployment Rate Adjusted | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | Medium impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Industrial Production MoM | -1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Industrial Production YoY SA | -1.63% | 0.00% | 0.00% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Leading Indicator Change | 1.7 | -- | 0.0 | Low impact | No measurable move |
Friday, September 4, 2026
22 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | 588 | -- | 588 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 449 | -- | 447 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Ivey PMI | 64.3 | -- | 55.1 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Nonfarm Payrolls | 162k | 55k | -23k | High impact | Beat | Gold (GC Sep26) -1.76% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Sep26) -0.45% 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN Dec26) -0.35% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 2 other releases at this time | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Government Payrolls | 35k | -- | -53k | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Unemployment Rate | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Labor Force Participation | 61.6% | 61.5% | 61.4% | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Private Payrolls | 127k | 50k | 30k | Medium impact | Gold futures -1.76% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) -0.45% 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN) -0.35% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 2 other releases at this time | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | High impact | In line | Gold futures -1.76% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) -0.45% 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN) -0.35% Measured over 15 minutes from the print, which landed with 2 other releases at this time | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Average Workweek Hrs | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.3 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Employment Change | -41.7k | 15.0k | 75.1k | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.00% | 2.90% | 3.00% | High impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ) -0.45% 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN) -0.35% Dow fut (YM) -0.24% Measured over 15 minutes from the print | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Participation Rate | 65.0% | 65.1% | 65.1% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Average Earnings MoM | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Average Earnings YoY | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Manufacturing Payrolls | 16k | 5k | 5k | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Retail Sales MoM | -0.6% | 0.2% | -0.3% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Retail Sales YoY | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK Construction PMI | 44.3 | 46.0 | 44.7 | Medium impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Retail Sales YoY NSA | 0.80% | -- | 3.10% | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Retail Sales MoM | -0.40% | -- | -0.10% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Industrial Orders MoM | 2.5% | 0.3% | 3.1% | High impact | No measurable move |
Thursday, September 3, 2026
13 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese All Household Spending YoY | -3.6% | -1.6% | -3.3% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | South Korean Current Account Bal NSA | 42.078B | -- | 49.73B | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US 4-Week Bill High Yield | 3.700% | -- | 3.650% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US 4-Week Bill Bid-to-Cover | 2.970 | -- | 2.730 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Natural Gas Change BCF | 30B | 31B | 15B | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US ISM Services Prices Paid | 72.6 | 70.0 | 70.3 | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US ISM Services PMI | 55.4 | 54.1 | 54.1 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US ISM Services New Orders | 60.9 | 56.0 | 57.2 | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US ISM Services Employment | 47.8 | 48.3 | 47.4 | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US S&P Composite PMI Final | 56.0 | 56.1 | 56.0 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US S&P Services PMI Final | 56.5 | 56.8 | 56.8 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Productivity Revised | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Trade Balance | -88.6B | -90.2B | -73.3B | Medium impact | Beat | Price data unavailable |
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