Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
1987Releases shown
83Moved something
258Beat forecast
288Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Thursday, September 24, 2026
8 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π©πͺ Germany | German IFO Expectations | 90.4 | 89.3 | 89.1 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German IFO Business Climate | 89.9 | 89.0 | 88.8 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German IFO Current Conditions | 89.5 | 89.0 | 88.5 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΈπͺ Sweden | Swedish Riksbank Rate | 1.75% | 1.75% | 1.75% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π Switzerland | Swiss Interest Rate | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π«π· France | French Consumer Confidence | 86 | 85 | 86 | Medium impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French Business Climate Overall | 96 | 98 | 98 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π«π· France | French Business Climate Mfg | 101 | 102 | 103 | High impact | No measurable move |
Wednesday, September 23, 2026
32 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian Full Time Employment Chg. | -6.3k | -- | 16.3k | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian Unemployment Rate | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian Employment Change | 39.5k | 20.0k | -15.8k | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian Participation Rate | 67.1% | 66.9% | 66.9% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Mfg PMI Flash | 54.1 | -- | 54.9 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π―π΅ Japan | Japanese Composite PMI Flash | 52.5 | -- | 53.5 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 5-Year Note Bid-to-Cover | 2.210 | -- | 2.370 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 5-Year Note High Yield | 5.033% | -- | 4.393% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Crude Cushing Inventories | 2.266M | -- | -0.342M | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Gasoline Inventories | -1.686M | 0.50M | 0.794M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Crude Oil Inventories | 2.969M | -0.69M | -0.640M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US EIA Distillate Inventories | -0.428M | -0.68M | 1.585M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US S&P Manufacturing PMI Flash | 57.0 | 53.7 | 53.9 | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US S&P Services PMI Flash | 58.7 | 55.8 | 56.5 | High impact | Beat | 10-yr Treasury fut (ZN Dec26) -0.25% Gold (GC Sep26) -0.24% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) -0.23% Measured over 10 minutes from the print | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US S&P Composite PMI Flash | 58.4 | 55.3 | 56.0 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate | 7.12% | -- | 6.97% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US MBA Mortgage Applications | -1.5% | -- | -4.1% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German 30 Yr Bund Bid-to-cover | 1.584 | -- | 2.40 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German 30 Yr Bund Yield | 3.8% | -- | 3.9% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Composite PMI Flash | 51.7 | 52.0 | 52.5 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Manufacturing PMI Flash | 52.0 | 51.5 | 51.7 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Services PMI Flash | 51.7 | 52.0 | 52.5 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Composite PMI Flash | 53.1 | 51.7 | 52.0 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Flash | 52.7 | 52.6 | 52.7 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Services PMI Flash | 53.0 | 51.4 | 51.6 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Service PMI Flash | 52.9 | 49.9 | 49.7 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Composite PMI Flash | 53.8 | 51.8 | 51.8 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Manufacturing PMI Flash | 53.8 | 54.0 | 54.3 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French Services PMI Flash | 51.4 | 48.3 | 48.0 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French Comp Flash PMI | 51.2 | 48.7 | 48.5 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French Manufacturing PMI Flash | 50.3 | 51.0 | 51.1 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π³π± Netherlands | Dutch GDP QoQ Final SA | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | Medium impact | Beat | No measurable move |
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