Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
1987Releases shown
83Moved something
258Beat forecast
288Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Monday, September 28, 2026
4 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | US 3-Month Bill High Yield | 4.110% | -- | 4.015% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Dallas Fed Mfg. Bus. Index | 9.80 | 7.80 | 11.60 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Non-EU Flash Trade Balance | 2.00B | -- | 2.55B | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | Swedish Trade Balance | -11.9B | -- | 1.2B | Medium impact | Price data unavailable |
Sunday, September 27, 2026
1 release| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | Chinese Industrial profit YTD | 15.7% | -- | 17.6% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable |
Friday, September 25, 2026
18 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 455 | -- | 452 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | 599 | -- | 595 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Budget Balance | -4.77B | -- | 0.99B | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US University Michigan Sentiment Final | 48.1 | 47.5 | 47.8 | High impact | Beat | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) -0.30% Gold (GC Sep26) -0.23% Measured over 10 minutes from the print, which landed with 2 other releases at this time | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US University Michigan Conditions Final | 50.9 | 50.5 | 50.9 | Medium impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) -0.30% Dow fut (YM Dec26) -0.26% Measured over 10 minutes from the print, which landed with 2 other releases at this time | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US University Michigan Expectations Final | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.8 | Medium impact | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) -0.30% Gold (GC Sep26) -0.23% Measured over 10 minutes from the print, which landed with 2 other releases at this time | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US University Michigan 1 Yr Inflation Final | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | Medium impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US University Michigan 5 Yr Inflation Final | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | Medium impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Core Durable Goods | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Durable Goods | 0.0% | -0.3% | 1.1% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Money-M3 Annual Growth | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Loans to Non Financial Firms | 4.2% | -- | 4.4% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Loans to Households | 3.1% | -- | 3.1% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇪🇸 Spain | Spanish GDP QoQ | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | Spanish GDP YoY | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.7% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | Swedish PPI YoY | 6.8% | -- | 6.4% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | Swedish PPI MoM | 0.9% | -- | 0.1% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Chain Store Sales YoY | 0% | -- | 0% | High impact | No measurable move |
Thursday, September 24, 2026
17 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | US 7-Year Bid-to-Cover | 2.420 | -- | 2.500 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US 7-Year High Yield | 5.085% | -- | 4.512% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US 4-Week Bill Bid-to-Cover | 2.610 | -- | 3.020 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US 4-Week Bill High Yield | 3.850% | -- | 3.820% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Kansas City Fed Composite Index | 14.0 | 8.5 | 10.0 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Kansas City Fed Manufacturing | 20 | -- | 17 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Natural Gas Change BCF | 53B | 51B | 44B | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US New Home Sales Change MoM | 6.4% | 1.3% | -10.5% | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US New Home Sales - Units | 0.684M | 0.6155M | 0.607M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Initial Jobless Claims | 197k | 200k | 196k | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Retail Sales MoM | -0.7% | -0.8% | 0.6% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Current Account | -246.0B | -257.4B | -226.8B | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Core Retail Sales MoM | -0.7% | -0.5% | 0.5% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Continued Jobless Claims | 1.719M | 1.74M | 1.730M | Medium impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Business Barometer | 47.90 | -- | 57.64 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK CBI Distributive Trades | -55 | -- | -48 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇳🇴 Norway | Norwegian Key Policy Rate | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.25% | High impact | No measurable move |
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