Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
1987Releases shown
83Moved something
258Beat forecast
288Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Wednesday, September 30, 2026
40 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | South Korean Exports Prelim | 83.5% | 62.5% | 68.7% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Foreign Stock Investment | 225.8B | -- | 169.2B | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Foreign Investment Japanese Bonds | -1341.8B | -- | 2.0,236.2B | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Foreign Investment Japanese Stocks | -362B | -- | -1,522.8B | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Tankan Big Non-Mfg Index | 35 | 36 | 37 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Tankan Big Mfg Index | 24 | 25 | 22 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Foreign Bond Investment | -684.5B | -- | 1.0,082.9B | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Manufacturing PMI Final | 49.6 | -- | 49.3 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇳🇿 New Zealand | New Zealand Building Consents | 5.6% | -- | -4.3% | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Distillate Inventories | -2.251M | 0.075M | -0.428M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Crude Cushing Inventories | 0.553M | -- | 2.266M | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Crude Oil Inventories | 0.922M | -0.71M | 2.969M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Gasoline Inventories | -1.684M | -1.00M | -1.686M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Chicago PMI | 58.8 | 51.0 | 47.1 | Medium impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Consumer Spending MoM | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Advance Goods Trade Balance | -132.60B | -115.00B | -118.94B | Low impact | Miss | Gold (GC Dec26) +0.39% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) +0.34% Measured over 10 minutes from the print, which landed with 6 other releases at this time | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Personal Income MoM | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US GDP Deflator SA Final | 6.1% | -- | 6.4% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Core PCE Prices Final | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | Medium impact | Beat | Gold (GC Dec26) +0.39% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) +0.34% Measured over 10 minutes from the print, which landed with 6 other releases at this time | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | High impact | Beat | Gold (GC Dec26) +0.27% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) +0.25% Measured over 10 minutes from the print, which landed with 6 other releases at this time | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US PCE Prices Final | 5.0% | -- | 5.3% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Wholesale Inventories MoM Advance | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.3% | Low impact | Gold (GC Dec26) +0.39% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) +0.34% Measured over 10 minutes from the print, which landed with 6 other releases at this time | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | High impact | Beat | Gold (GC Dec26) +0.39% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) +0.34% Measured over 10 minutes from the print, which landed with 6 other releases at this time | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Real Personal Consumption MoM | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | Medium impact | Gold (GC Dec26) +0.39% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) +0.34% Measured over 10 minutes from the print, which landed with 6 other releases at this time | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US GDP QoQ Final | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | High impact | Beat | Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) +0.25% Measured over 10 minutes from the print, which landed with 6 other releases at this time | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Retail Inventories Ex-Auto Adv. | 0.1% | -- | 0.8% | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US ADP Employment Change | 90.0k | 74.5k | 38.0k | Medium impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German HICP MoM Prelim | 0.60% | 0.50% | 0.20% | Medium impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German HICP YoY Prelim | 3.30% | 3.20% | 2.90% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German CPI YoY Prelim | 3.30% | 3.10% | 2.90% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German CPI MoM Prelim | 0.60% | 0.50% | 0.20% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate | 7.30% | -- | 7.12% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US MBA Mortgage Applications | -6.0% | -- | -1.5% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German 10 Yr Bund Bid-to-Cover | 1.2 | -- | 1.5 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German 10 Yr Bund Yield | 3.58% | -- | 3.39% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian HICP MoM Prelim | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian CPI YoY Prelim | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian CPI MoM Prelim | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move |
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