Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
1987Releases shown
0Moved something
258Beat forecast
288Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Thursday, October 1, 2026
33 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | South Korean CPI YoY | 2.90% | 2.90% | 3.10% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US 4-Week Bill High Yield | 3.890% | -- | 3.850% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US 4-Week Bill Bid-to-Cover | 2.830 | -- | 2.610 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US EIA Natural Gas Change BCF | 64B | 63B | 53B | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Construction Spending MoM | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.5% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US ISM Mfg. New Orders Index | 55.3 | 54.7 | 53.7 | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US ISM Mfg. Employment Index | 52.7 | 52.0 | 51.2 | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 55.0 | 54.6 | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US ISM Mfg. Prices Paid | 77.9 | 73.0 | 71.1 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final | 55.9 | 57.0 | 57.0 | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Manufacturing PMI | 51.5 | -- | 53.0 | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Initial Jobless Claims | 197k | 200k | 197k | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Continued Jobless Claims | 1.701M | 1.725M | 1.719M | Medium impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Challenger Layoffs | 43.281k | -- | 52.881k | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Unemployment Rate | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French 20 Yr OAT Bid-to-Cover | 2.43 | -- | 3.07 | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇫🇷 France | French 20 Yr OAT Yield | 5.40% | -- | 4.74% | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇫🇷 France | French 10 Yr OAT Bid-to-Cover | 2.00 | -- | 2.28 | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇫🇷 France | French 10 Yr OAT Yield | 4.93% | -- | 4.23% | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK Manufacturing PMI Final | 51.9 | 52.0 | 52.0 | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Final | 52.9 | 52.7 | 52.7 | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Unemployment Rate | 6.20% | 5.75% | 5.80% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Manufacturing PMI Final | 53.9 | 53.8 | 53.8 | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French Manufacturing PMI | 50.6 | 50.3 | 50.3 | High impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss Manufacturing PMI | 55.3 | 56.3 | 57.1 | Medium impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | Spanish Manufacturing PMI | 51.0 | 50.2 | 49.5 | Medium impact | Beat | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss Retail Sales YoY | 3.2% | -- | 2.3% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss CPI YoY | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss Core CPI YoY | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇨🇠Switzerland | Swiss CPI MoM | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK Nationwide House Price YoY | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK Nationwide House Price MoM | -0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | Dutch Retail Sales YoY | 2.5% | -- | 3.5% | High impact | Price data unavailable |
Wednesday, September 30, 2026
7 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Trade Balance | 495M | 2000M | 1,923M | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Exports | 3.7% | -- | -3.3% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Imports | 5.8% | -- | -2.5% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | South Korean Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | -- | 52.3 | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Mfg PMI | 54.1 | -- | 54.1 | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | South Korean Imports Prelim | 26.0% | 21.0% | 22.4% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | South Korean Trade Balance Prelim | 49.85B | 38.90B | 34.79B | Medium impact | Beat | Price data unavailable |
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