Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
1987Releases shown
83Moved something
258Beat forecast
288Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Monday, October 5, 2026
10 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Composite Final PMI | 53.1 | 53.1 | 53.1 | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Composite PMI Final | 53.8 | 53.8 | 53.8 | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Services PMI Final | 52.9 | 52.9 | 52.9 | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French Composite PMI | 51.1 | 51.2 | 51.2 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇫🇷 France | French Services PMI | 51.2 | 51.4 | 51.4 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Composite PMI | 51.0 | 53.2 | 53.6 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Services PMI | 51.7 | 54.5 | 55.2 | Medium impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | Turkish CPI YoY | 29.73% | 30.26% | 31.51% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | Turkish CPI MoM | 1.84% | 2.28% | 1.84% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Consumer Confidence | 35.4 | 35.3 | 35.5 | Medium impact | Beat | No measurable move |
Sunday, October 4, 2026
4 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Composite PMI Final | 52.3 | -- | 52.5 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Services PMI | 51.3 | -- | 51.6 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Composite PMI Final | 51.3 | -- | 50.8 | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian Services PMI Final | 51.9 | -- | 51.4 | High impact | Price data unavailable |
Friday, October 2, 2026
20 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | 598 | -- | 599 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 456 | -- | 455 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Core Durable Goods Revised | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Durable Goods Revised | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Factory Orders MoM | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Average Earnings MoM | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Average Earnings YoY | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Average Workweek Hrs | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.4 | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Manufacturing Payrolls | 9k | 10k | 16k | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Private Payrolls | 46k | 81k | 127k | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Government Payrolls | -17k | -- | 35k | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Nonfarm Payrolls | 29k | 90k | 162k | High impact | Miss | Gold (GC Dec26) +0.63% Nasdaq 100 fut (NQ Dec26) +0.38% USD/JPY -0.30% Measured over 10 minutes from the print | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Labor Force Participation | 61.8% | 61.6% | 61.6% | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Unemployment Rate | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone CPI YoY Flash | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone Core CPI YoY Flash | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇪🇺 Eurozone | Eurozone CPI MoM Flash | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Retail Sales MoM | 0.30% | -- | -0.40% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Retail Sales YoY NSA | 0.50% | -- | 0.80% | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇳🇴 Norway | Norwegian Unemployment Rate NSA | 2.0% | -- | 2.1% | High impact | No measurable move |
Thursday, October 1, 2026
6 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Monetary Base YoY | -15.2% | -- | -15.7% | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Unemployment Rate | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Tokyo CPI Overall | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | High impact | Miss | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Tokyo Core CPI YoY | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Jobs/Applicants Ratio | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.18 | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | South Korean CPI MoM | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.20% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move |
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