Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
1987Releases shown
83Moved something
258Beat forecast
288Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Tuesday, October 6, 2026
20 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Distillate Stock Change | 0.461M | -- | -0.286M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Crude Oil Stock Change | -2.10M | -- | 1.019M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US API Cushing Stock Change | 0.866M | -- | 0.233M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 3-Year Note Bid-to-Cover | 2.620 | -- | 2.720 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 3-Year Note High Yield | 4.932% | -- | 4.474% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Ivey PMI | 58.2 | -- | 64.3 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US Redbook YoY | 8.6% | -- | 8.2% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π¨π¦ Canada | Canadian Trade Balance | 4.20B | 1.50B | 0.77B | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US Trade Balance | -105.60B | -102.05B | -88.60B | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US ADP Wkly Employment Change | 23.75k | -- | 20.00k | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German 2 Yr Schatz Bid-to-Cover | 1.1 | -- | 1.3 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| π©πͺ Germany | German 2 Yr Schatz Yield | 3.10% | -- | 3.27% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Retail Sales YoY | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Retail Sales MoM | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.6% | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Construction PMI | 46.1 | 44.9 | 44.3 | Medium impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¨π Switzerland | Swiss Unemployment Rate Adjusted | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | Medium impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π¨π Switzerland | Swiss Unemployment Rate Unadjusted | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | Low impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| π«π· France | French Budget Balance | -159.60B | -- | -145.91B | Medium impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| π«π· France | French Industrial Production MoM | -0.3% | 0.2% | -0.4% | Medium impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π©πͺ Germany | German Industrial Orders MoM | -10.6% | -1.0% | 2.5% | High impact | No measurable move |
Monday, October 5, 2026
20 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¦πΊ Australia | Australian Consumer Sentiment | -4.7% | -- | -5.2% | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| π³πΏ New Zealand | New Zealand NZIER Confidence | 43 | -- | 8 | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 3-Month Awarded High | 21.300% | -- | 61.140% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 6-Month Bill Bid-to-Cover | 2.790 | -- | 2.640 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 6-Month Bill High Yield | 4.165% | -- | 4.285% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 3-Month Bill Bid-to-Cover | 2.51 | -- | 2.990 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 6-Month Awarded High | 40.620% | -- | 37.890% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US 3-Month Bill High Yield | 4.05% | -- | 4.110% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 55.0 | 55.4 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 48.8 | 47.8 | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 60.3 | 60.9 | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US ISM Services Prices Paid | 74.0 | 73.3 | 72.6 | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| πΊπΈ United States | US S&P Composite PMI Final | 58.4 | 58.3 | 58.4 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πΊπΈ United States | US S&P Services PMI Final | 58.8 | 58.7 | 58.7 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone PPI MoM | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | Medium impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone PPI YoY | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.8% | Medium impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Composite PMI Final | 52.0 | 51.7 | 51.7 | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| π¬π§ United Kingdom | UK Services PMI Final | 52.1 | 51.7 | 51.7 | Medium impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index | 2.7 | 4.5 | 5.1 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| πͺπΊ Eurozone | Eurozone Services PMI Final | 53.0 | 53.0 | 53.0 | High impact | In line | No measurable move |
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