Updated as data prints
Economic Data Releases: Actual vs Forecast, and What Moved
Every released macro print we track, with the actual against forecast and the prior reading — and the move MoveSurge measured in the minutes after it, taken from the same clock as the print.
1987Releases shown
83Moved something
258Beat forecast
288Missed forecast
Actual vs forecast
Actual is the number that printed. Forecast is the consensus estimate going in. Previous is the last reading for the same series.
Beat / miss
Beat means the print was better than forecast for that indicator's direction — lower jobless claims and lower unemployment count as better. Blank where the direction is not well defined.
What moved
Measured against the release clock, not the close: a reference level just before the print, sampled again over the window named beside the figure. Most prints move nothing measurable, and those say so.
How each release has behaved
The print history for a single series, with the measured reaction to each one, split by beat and miss.
Tuesday, October 13, 2026
14 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Existing Home Sales change | 1.5% | -0.8% | -2.0% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Existing Home Sales | 3.99M | 3.95M | 3.98M | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Redbook YoY | 10.4% | -- | 8.6% | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US ADP Wkly Employment Change | 24.75k | -- | 23.75k | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German Current Account Balance NSA | 10.3B | -- | 21.2B | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.90 | 98.20 | 98.70 | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German 5 Yr Bobl Yield | 3.22% | -- | 3.28% | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German 5 Yr Bobl Bid-to-Cover | 1.1 | -- | 1.2 | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German CPI MoM Final | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German HICP YoY Final | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German CPI YoY Final | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | German HICP MoM Final | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | Medium impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | Dutch CPI YoY | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | High impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | Dutch CPI MoM | 0.1% | -- | 0.3% | High impact | No measurable move |
Monday, October 12, 2026
7 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian NAB Business Confidence | -13 | -- | -8 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇦🇺 Australia | Australian NAB Business Conditions | -1 | -- | -1 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese Bank Lending YoY | 5.3% | -- | 5.4% | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese PPI MoM | -0.3% | 0.5% | -0.2% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese PPI YoY | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | UK BRC Retail Sales YoY | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | Low impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | Dutch Trade Balance | 8.300B | -- | 10.912B | Medium impact | No measurable move |
Friday, October 9, 2026
18 releases| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | 603 | -- | 598 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 462 | -- | 456 | Medium impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | WASDE Cotton End Stocks | 3.8M | 3.5M | 3.6M | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | WASDE Wheat End Stocks | 740M | 720M | 717M | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | WASDE Corn End Stocks | 1849.00M | 1695.34M | 1567.00M | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | WASDE Soybean End Stocks | 315.0M | 305.5M | 310.0M | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US University Michigan Expectations Prelim | 47.3 | 45.7 | 46.3 | Low impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇺🇸 United States | US University Michigan 1 Yr Inflation Prelim | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | Low impact | Beat | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US University Michigan 5 Yr Inflation Prelim | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | Low impact | In line | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US University Michigan Sentiment Prelim | 46.3 | 47.6 | 48.1 | High impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇺🇸 United States | US University Michigan Condition Prelim | 44.7 | 50.1 | 50.9 | Low impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Unemployment Rate | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | High impact | In line | Price data unavailable | |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Participation Rate | 64.8% | 65.0% | 65.0% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.30% | 2.30% | 2.00% | High impact | Price data unavailable | ||
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Canadian Employment Change | -68.3k | 10.0k | -41.7k | High impact | Miss | USD/CAD +0.41% Measured over 10 minutes from the print | |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | Italian Industrial Production MoM | -1.3% | 0.0% | 0.7% | Medium impact | Miss | No measurable move | |
| 🇳🇴 Norway | Norwegian CPI MoM | 0.5% | -- | -0.3% | High impact | No measurable move | ||
| 🇳🇴 Norway | Norwegian CPI YoY | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.3% | High impact | Beat | No measurable move |
Thursday, October 8, 2026
1 release| Time | Country | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Impact | Result | What moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Japanese All Household Spending YoY | -3.1% | -3.6% | -3.6% | Medium impact | No measurable move |
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