September 2026 CPI: inflation hit 3.7% on October 14, and stocks, yields and gold moved within a minute

US consumer prices rose 0.6% in September 2026 and 3.7% from a year earlier, above the 3.6% economists expected, and core prices rose 0.3% on the month against a 0.2% forecast. The Labor Department released the report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, October 14, and it reached the MoveSurge news feed at 08:30:12 ET. In the first minute Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.632%, 10-year Treasury note futures fell 0.521% as yields rose, and spot gold dropped 0.592%.

The monthly headline figure matched the forecast, so the surprise sat in the annual rate and in core prices. Gasoline rose 9.1% in the month and accounted for more than half of the increase in the all-items index, while shelter rose 0.4% after 0.3% in August.

The September CPI numbers

Energy prices rose 5.2% in the month and 20.4% over the year, and gasoline was up 34.2% from September 2025. Food prices were flat on the month. Average hourly earnings adjusted for inflation fell 0.5% in September and 0.7% over the year, because nominal pay rose 0.1% while prices rose 0.6%.

How markets moved in the first ten minutes

The one-minute candles put Nasdaq 100 futures at 30,462.7 at the end of the first minute, down 0.64% from 30,658.5, and at 30,398.5 after fifteen minutes, down 0.85%. The MoveSurge reaction reading, taken from the futures contract, recorded a 0.632% fall after one minute and a 0.773% fall after ten.

Gold fell more than any other market in the table, even though the report showed faster inflation. Traders read the print as raising the chance of another Federal Reserve rate increase, which pushed up yields and the dollar, and gold pays no interest, so a higher expected rate path makes it less attractive to hold. Short-term interest-rate futures fell within a minute of the release as traders added to bets on an October hike. Note futures and yields move in opposite directions, so the 0.774% fall in the 10-year contract after ten minutes was a rise in the yield.

The close on October 14

The S&P 500 closed down 1.11% at 7,718.94, its largest one-day fall since July 29, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.88% to 26,692.87, its biggest drop since July 23. The Dow lost 0.09%. Chip stocks did most of the damage: the Philadelphia Semiconductor index fell 4.3%, Oracle 8.8% and Dell 11.27%. The dollar index rose 0.69% to about 102.90, an 18-month high, and November WTI crude settled up 1.01% at $95.09.

What it means for the Fed

The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16, its first increase since July 2023, and its next meeting is on October 27 and 28. Futures pricing put the chance of an October hike at about 37% at the close, according to CME FedWatch data cited by Reuters. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that day further increases were likely needed but not urgently, and attributed most of the jump in the headline rate to gasoline. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the report discouraging. The minutes of the September meeting, released a week earlier, showed most officials expected another increase by the end of 2026. On October 7 the 10-year yield had already climbed to its highest level since 2002.