Why Did Oil Rise, Then Fall Today? Brent Hit $111.99 on Oct 20, 2026, Then Dropped 1%
Brent crude reached $111.99 a barrel on October 20, 2026, its highest since May, on Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi oil sites and Iranian claims that mines hit tankers near Hormuz. It then fell to $108.31, down 1%, after US Central Command called the mine claims untrue and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Hormuz flows were nearly back to prewar levels.
- Brent crude reached $111.99 a barrel on October 20, 2026, its highest since May, then fell to $108.31, down 1%, after US Central Command called Iran's mine claims untrue and Rubio said Hormuz flows were near prewar levels, CNBC reported.
- Yemen's Houthis said they had attacked an Aramco site in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield and two Saudi airports. Saudi Arabia did not confirm the claims.
- Kpler counted Hormuz shipments at 10.17 million barrels a day in the week to Saturday, about 41% below prewar levels.
Reaction by asset (real prices)
| Asset | 2m before | At release | +1m | +10m | +1m % | +10m % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI | 99.76 | 99.76 | 99.76 | 100.19 | 0.00% | +0.43% |
Oil rose to a five-month high on Tuesday, October 20, 2026 and then fell. Brent crude for December delivery reached $111.99 a barrel, its highest price since May, after Yemen's Houthis said they had attacked Saudi oil sites and Iran's Revolutionary Guards said mines had set two tankers on fire south of the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command said the Iranian mine claims were untrue, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the oil going through Hormuz was nearly equal to its prewar level, and Brent fell to $108.31, down 1%, CNBC reported, as traders weighed the prospect of US-Iran diplomacy. In MoveSurge's data, the December WTI contract rose from $99.76 to $100.33 in the 15 minutes after a 04:43:00 ET headline that Brent had topped $110.
How the day turned
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said at 05:23 ET that mines had set two tankers ablaze and halted them south of the strait. Later in the morning Iranian outlets said a tanker that had broken their rules caught fire in the southern corridor and that another had switched off its tracking systems. US Central Command called the claims that tankers had hit mines untrue, and Brent and US crude futures fell about $3 a barrel from their highs. At 11:43 ET Rubio said the oil going through Hormuz was nearly equal to its prewar level.
At 04:10 ET Brent traded at $110.80, up $1.25 or 1.1%. The US benchmark, WTI, rose as high as $104.94, its highest since September, according to Reuters. That WTI figure is the November contract, which stops trading on October 20.
Why oil quotes differ by more than $10 this week
The prices quoted as "oil" this week come from different contracts. Brent for December delivery settled at $109.55 on Monday, down 0.3%. November WTI, a day from expiry, rose 2.2% to $103.66 on thin volume. December WTI fell 0.5% to $98.54. That left a gap of $5.12 between the two WTI months, according to settlement prices reported by The Wall Street Journal.
| Contract | Monday, Oct 19 settlement | Change | Tuesday, Oct 20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent, December | $109.55 | -0.3% | high $111.05; $110.80 at 04:10 ET |
| WTI, November (expires Oct 20) | $103.66 | +2.2% | high $104.94; $104.80 at 04:10 ET |
| WTI, December | $98.54 | -0.5% | $99.76 at 04:42 ET; $100.33 at 04:58 ET (MoveSurge data) |
When a nearby month trades well above the next one, buyers are paying extra for oil they can get sooner. Part of this gap also comes from an expiring contract that trades on little volume. December WTI takes over as the US benchmark after Tuesday, so most WTI quotes will fall by about $5 when the benchmark rolls, with no change in the market itself.
What pushed Brent higher
The Houthis said they had launched attacks on Saudi energy, airport and military targets, including an Aramco site in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport and Abha airport. Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the claims, and Reuters could not verify them. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran is giving the Houthis intelligence and targeting help for attacks on Saudi Arabia. The Houthis hold Yemen's coast along the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a key route for Saudi exports.
Shipping is the other worry. Ship tracker Kpler said at least 18 vessels were reportedly attacked in the Gulf over two weeks. Kpler also counted confirmed shipments through the Strait of Hormuz at 10.17 million barrels a day in the seven days to Saturday, about 41% below prewar levels. Including terminals on the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea, flows averaged 19.04 million barrels a day, about 19% below prewar.
ING said in a Tuesday note that prices include a large risk premium. It said the premium would likely shrink slowly if oil kept flowing freely, and that it saw no sign of that yet.
What is pulling the other way
On Friday, President Trump waived some sanctions and tariffs under a new law aimed at Russia, which could ease limits on Russian energy trade. Oil fell on Monday as traders weighed that order.Analyst Phil Flynn told The Wall Street Journal that the waiver and the release of Russian diesel add "a few more barrels," but that the volumes are small next to the shortfall. We covered the waiver in Trump waives Russia sanctions and tariffs.
How MoveSurge measured the move
The Brent headline reached the MoveSurge news feed at 04:43:00 ET (08:43:00 UTC). December WTI on NYMEX was at $99.76 at the last close before it. Ten minutes after the headline it was up 0.43%. The candlestick chart runs to 15 minutes and ends at $100.33, up 0.57%. The headline restated a level Brent had already reached, and other news may also have moved the price. We do not hold minute-by-minute Brent data for this session, so the chart uses WTI.
Why did oil rise and then fall today?
Brent rose to $111.99 a barrel on October 20, 2026, its highest since May, on Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi oil sites and Iranian claims that mines hit tankers near Hormuz. It fell back to $108.31, down 1%, after US Central Command called the mine claims untrue and Rubio said Hormuz flows were near prewar levels.
How high is Brent crude today?
Brent rose as high as $111.99 a barrel on October 20, 2026, according to CNBC, and traded at $108.31, down 1%, later in the day. It settled at $109.55 on Monday.
Why do WTI oil prices differ between websites?
Some sites quote November WTI, which expires on October 20, 2026 and settled at $103.66 on Monday. Others quote December WTI, which settled at $98.54. December becomes the US benchmark after Tuesday.
Did Saudi Arabia confirm the Houthi attacks?
Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the Houthi claims of attacks on an Aramco site in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield and two airports, and Reuters could not independently verify them.
Sources
-
Oil prices fall as traders hope for diplomatic progress in Middle East
— CNBC
December Brent fell 1% to $108.31 a barrel, off a session high of $111.99, as traders weighed US-Iran diplomacy.
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Brent hits five-month high as attacks on ships, Saudi sites fuel supply worries
— Reuters via The Globe and Mail
Brent rose to $111.05, highest since May, and traded at $110.80 at 4:10 a.m. ET, up $1.25 or 1.1%; WTI as high as $104.94, highest since September, last $104.80; Houthi claims of attacks on Yanbu Aramco site, Shaybah, Riyadh and Abha airports not confirmed by Saudi authorities or verified by Reuters; Kpler: at least 18 vessels reportedly attacked over two weeks; ING risk premium note
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Oil Prices Fall as Traders Weigh Russia Sanctions Waiver
— The Wall Street Journal via Yahoo Finance
Oct 19 settlements: Brent December $109.55 (-0.3%), WTI December $98.54 (-0.5%), WTI November $103.66 (+2.2%) on thin volume, expiring Tuesday; Trump Russia sanctions waiver; Phil Flynn quote; Iran giving Houthis targeting help; Kpler Hormuz flows 10.17 million b/d, about 41% below prewar, 19.04 million b/d including Gulf of Oman and Red Sea, about 19% below
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