Why Is Netflix Stock Down Today? A Weak Q4 Forecast and a Smaller Ad Target on October 20, 2026
Netflix beat third-quarter profit estimates on October 20, 2026, but guided fourth-quarter EPS to $0.67 against $0.73 expected and cut its 2026 ad revenue expectation to about $2.7 billion. The shares fell nearly 6% after hours.
- Netflix guided fourth-quarter EPS to $0.67, below the $0.73 analysts expected, after third-quarter results on October 20, 2026.
- It now expects about $2.7 billion of 2026 advertising revenue, down from about $3 billion when it closed its US upfront in August.
- Third-quarter EPS of $0.87 beat the $0.82 estimate on revenue of $12.87 billion; the shares fell nearly 6% to $64.66 after hours.
Netflix shares fell nearly 6% to $64.66 in after-hours trading on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, after third-quarter results that beat on profit came with a weaker fourth-quarter forecast than Wall Street expected and a smaller advertising target. Netflix guided fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) to $0.67, below the $0.73 analysts expected, and now expects about $2.7 billion of advertising revenue in 2026.
Third-quarter EPS was $0.87, above the $0.82 expected, on revenue of $12.87 billion, in line with estimates. Netflix said most of its margin beat came from expenses landing later than planned, so part of that cost shifts into the fourth quarter. Our full Q3 2026 earnings report has the guidance table and the buyback figures.
The advertising target came down
On August 10, 2026, when Netflix closed its US upfront, the annual market where advertisers commit budgets in advance, it said commitments had nearly doubled and that it expected about $3 billion of ad revenue in 2026. The stock rose 0.53% within a minute of that headline and was up 0.84% after 15 minutes, at $75.73 from $75.10. In the October 20 letter Netflix lowered the figure to about $2.7 billion, blaming a slower-than-expected rollout of some ad products.
Netflix's dated catalysts
- October 20, 2026: Q3 results. EPS beat, fourth-quarter EPS guidance of $0.67 against $0.73 expected, ad target cut. Shares fell nearly 6% after hours, according to Reuters.
- August 10, 2026: US upfront closed with commitments nearly doubling. The stock rose 0.84% in 15 minutes.
Why is Netflix stock down today?
Netflix guided fourth-quarter 2026 EPS to $0.67 on October 20, 2026, below the $0.73 analysts expected, and cut its 2026 ad revenue expectation to about $2.7 billion. The shares fell nearly 6% to $64.66 after hours, according to Reuters.
Did Netflix beat earnings in Q3 2026?
Yes. Netflix earned $0.87 a share against $0.82 expected, on revenue of $12.87 billion, in line with estimates.
Sources
-
Netflix third quarter 2026 shareholder letter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)
— Netflix via SEC EDGAR
Q3 revenue, operating margin and income, EPS, free cash flow, Q4 and 2026 guidance, ad revenue outlook, buybacks and remaining authorization.
-
Netflix (NFLX) earnings Q3 2026
— CNBC
EPS of $0.87 against $0.82 expected; 2026 revenue consensus; shares down more than 6% after hours.
-
Netflix co-CEO Sarandos says 'we could do better' after weak forecast
— Reuters via Business Recorder
After-hours fall of nearly 6% to $64.66; Q4 EPS guidance against consensus; net income; slowest growth in nearly three years; Antenna US subscriber data.
-
Netflix stock sinks after Q3 earnings as Q4 revenue forecast falls short of estimates
— Yahoo Finance
Q4 revenue guidance of $13.44 billion against $13.51 billion expected.
-
Netflix needs better execution in the US, Ted Sarandos says
— The Hollywood Reporter
Sarandos quotes on strategy and US growth from the October 20 call.
Never miss the next market-moving story
Follow the core market-moving feed across equities, macro, currencies and commodities. Your subscription includes price moves after the news, search, watchlists, alerts and research tools.
Create free accountGo real time Watch live headlines -- free