Why United Airlines Stock Fell After Q3 2026 Earnings: A $4.80 Fuel Assumption Cut the Q4 Outlook
United Airlines guided fourth-quarter adjusted EPS to $0.50 to $1.50 on October 20, 2026, against $1.76 expected, because it assumes jet fuel at $4.80 a gallon. The shares fell 2.99% in the first minute after hours.
- United guided fourth-quarter adjusted EPS to $0.50 to $1.50, against $1.76 expected, assuming jet fuel at $4.80 a gallon.
- Third-quarter adjusted EPS was $2.54 on record revenue of $17.88 billion; fuel expense rose 62% from a year earlier.
- United gave no new full-year range; CNBC calculated the fourth-quarter guidance implies at most $7.22 for 2026.
Reaction by asset (real prices)
| Asset | 2m before | At release | +1m | +10m | +1m % | +10m % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAL | 98.33 | 98.33 | 95.39 | 95.98 | -2.99% | -2.39% |
United Airlines shares fell 2.99% within a minute of its third-quarter results reaching the MoveSurge news feed at 16:00:50 ET on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, after the carrier guided fourth-quarter adjusted earnings well below Wall Street estimates because of higher jet fuel prices. United expects fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.50 to $1.50, against the $1.76 analysts expected, and assumes it will pay $4.80 a gallon for fuel.
Third-quarter results were close to estimates. Adjusted EPS was $2.54, slightly below the $2.57 analysts expected according to CNBC and down from $2.78 a year earlier, on record revenue of $17.88 billion, up 17.4%. United said fuel expense rose 62% from a year earlier.
| Third quarter | 2026 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $17.88 billion | $15.2 billion |
| Adjusted EPS | $2.54 | $2.78 |
| EPS | $3.14 | $2.90 |
| Adjusted pre-tax margin | 6.2% | 8.0% |
| Fuel price per gallon | $3.90 | $2.43 |
Fuel did the damage
United paid $3.90 a gallon for fuel in the third quarter, above the $3.69 it assumed in its July guidance, and it now expects $4.80 in the fourth quarter. United bases its forecast on the current forward price curve for Gulf Coast jet fuel, so the assumption reflects prices around the report date. NYMEX crude oil futures settled at $101.79 a barrel the same day, amid tension around the Strait of Hormuz.
Demand held up. United expects fourth-quarter revenue to grow more than 20% from a year earlier, which would be another record.
What happened to the full-year forecast
United did not give a new full-year range. It cut its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $7 to $11 from $12 to $14 on April 21, then raised it to $9 to $11 on July 15. Adding the reported quarters to the new fourth-quarter range means full-year EPS of no more than $7.22, CNBC calculated, below the low end of the July range.
How United's outlook compares with Delta's
Delta Air Lines cut its 2026 forecast on October 9 to $5.10 to $5.60 a share from $6.50 to $7.50, also because of fuel. Delta assumed about $4.25 a gallon for the fourth quarter, 55 cents less than United's $4.80. The two forecasts were made 11 days apart, and Delta owns an oil refinery that offsets part of its fuel bill.
How the stock traded
United traded at $98.33 two minutes before the results reached the MoveSurge news feed at 16:00:50 ET. A minute after the headline it was at $95.39, down 2.99%, and after ten minutes at $95.98, down 2.39%. The one-minute bar covering 16:00 ET opened at $98.36 and closed at $94.27, so most of the drop came in the first minute after the regular session ended. After-hours trading is thin, so these prices can swing more than in the regular session. United holds its earnings call on Wednesday, October 21.
Why did United Airlines stock fall after Q3 2026 earnings?
United guided fourth-quarter adjusted EPS to $0.50 to $1.50 on October 20, 2026, against $1.76 expected, because it assumes jet fuel will cost $4.80 a gallon. The shares fell 2.99% in the first minute after the results reached our news feed.
Did United Airlines cut its 2026 guidance?
United did not issue a new full-year range. Its fourth-quarter guidance implies full-year adjusted EPS of no more than $7.22, according to CNBC, below the $9 to $11 range it gave in July.
What fuel price is United assuming?
United assumes $4.80 a gallon for the fourth quarter of 2026, up from $3.90 in the third quarter and $2.43 a year earlier.
Sources
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United Airlines reports third-quarter 2026 results (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1)
— United Airlines via SEC EDGAR
Adjusted EPS of $2.54, EPS of $3.14, revenue of $17.88 billion, 62% increase in fuel expense, adjusted pre-tax margin, Q4 revenue growth above 20%.
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United Airlines investor update, October 20, 2026 (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.2)
— United Airlines via SEC EDGAR
Fourth-quarter outlook and earnings call date.
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United Airlines (UAL) Q3 2026 earnings
— CNBC
Q4 EPS guidance against consensus; $3.90 and $4.80 fuel prices; implied full-year ceiling of $7.22; revenue growth of 17.4%.
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United Airlines cuts profit forecast on fuel costs
— Quartz
Adjusted pre-tax margin against a year earlier; fuel costs behind the outlook.
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United Airlines misses estimates, squeezed by soaring fuel costs
— Bloomberg
Fuel costs drove the weaker outlook.
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