Lam Research Earnings: A Record Quarter, a Supply-Limited Forecast and Why the Stock Fell

Lam Research reported record revenue of $8.22 billion for the quarter ended September 27, 2026, after the close on Wednesday, October 21. That beat the $8.14 billion analysts expected, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.20 beat the $2.18 forecast. Lam guided December-quarter revenue to $8.60 billion, plus or minus $400 million, slightly above the roughly $8.54 billion consensus. The stock fell after hours and was down 8.4% at $239 before Thursday's open, Investing.com reported.

The selling began in the minute the release came out. Lam closed the regular session at $260.81, and in MoveSurge's one-minute data the 16:05 ET bar fell as low as $245.00 on 129,361 shares. When the headline reached the MoveSurge news feed at 16:06:24 ET the stock was at $249.94. One minute later it was $246.17, down 1.51%, and ten minutes later $240.00, down 3.98%. The low of the evening's first quarter-hour was $239.12, 8.32% below the close, and at 16:20 ET the stock traded at $244.59.

Supply limits held back the December forecast

Revenue grew 22.3% from the June quarter, but the December forecast implies growth of only 4.6% at the midpoint. Chief financial officer Doug Bettinger told analysts that "this revenue guide would have been a bit higher if not for some near-term supply chain constraints," and said some delayed shipments would go out in the March quarter. Chief executive Tim Archer pointed to "clean room space availability and supply chain constraints for certain components." Lam also guided EPS of $2.33, plus or minus $0.15, against a consensus of about $2.32.

China's share jumped and is expected to fall

China made up 35% of revenue in the September quarter, up from 26% in June. In dollars that is about $2.88 billion, against about $1.75 billion three months earlier. Bettinger said he expects China revenue in December to be "meaningfully down, driven by the domestic customers in China." He added that sales to multinational chipmakers operating in China are likely to remain reasonably strong. A year earlier China was 43% of sales, so the September jump only partly reversed that fall.

A much smaller guidance surprise than in July

In July, Lam forecast September-quarter revenue of $8.10 billion against a consensus of $7.11 billion, 13.9% higher, and the stock jumped 17% the next day, Invezz reported. In MoveSurge's data the first fifteen minutes after that July 29 headline were quiet: the stock was 1.01% above $269.00. This time the forecast midpoint was about 0.7% above consensus, and the actual quarter came in only 1.5% above Lam's own July midpoint.

Lam's outlook for chip-equipment spending

Archer said Lam expects wafer fab equipment spending, the industry's total outlay on chipmaking tools, "in the mid $150 billion range" for 2026. His preliminary outlook for 2027 is "more than $200 billion of spending, with percentage growth led by DRAM," followed by leading-edge foundry and logic, then NAND flash. Revenue from systems rose 34.9% from June to $5.73 billion, while customer support revenue reached a record $2.49 billion.

Lam bought back $1.025 billion of its own stock in the quarter and said $3 billion remains on its authorization. The quarterly dividend is $0.33 a share, after a 27% increase announced in August.