Options Priced vs. Actual: July 29, 2026 Earnings Scoreboard

Eleven companies reported earnings on 29 July 2026. Before each report, the options market priced an expected move — how far the stock was likely to swing, based on what at-the-money puts and calls cost to trade. Comparing that priced move to what actually happened shows which of eleven separate bets the market placed that day actually paid off.

The scoreboard

Read "actual ÷ priced" as a scorecard for the size of the bet, not its direction: 1.0× means the market's number was right regardless of which way the stock moved. Rush Street Interactive is the extreme case at the bottom — priced for a 9.8% swing and delivered 0.13%, effectively nothing.

The stock that barely moved despite record results

Rush Street Interactive reported record second-quarter revenue of $393.8 million, up 46% from a year earlier, record net income of $29.3 million, and raised its full-year guidance to $1.56 billion-$1.60 billion. Chief executive Richard Schwartz credited "continued share gains in online casino and our sports betting markets benefiting from the World Cup." A record quarter with raised guidance is normally a stock-moving combination. Here it moved the stock 0.13% against a priced 9.8% swing — roughly one hundredth of what was paid for — which typically means the good news was already reflected in the share price before the report crossed.

The biggest surprise: guidance, not the quarter

Lam Research reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.82, ahead of an estimate near $1.72, and revenue of $6.72 billion for its fiscal fourth quarter. That alone would not explain a 22.95% move against an 8.6% priced swing. The gap is guidance: the company projected first-quarter revenue of $7.70 billion to $8.50 billion, against a $7.09 billion estimate — a jump large enough on its own to reprice the stock well outside what the options market had budgeted for the quarter just reported.

The rest of the day

Microsoft was priced for a 7.1% move and delivered 12.42%, 1.75 times that, on the Azure acceleration and profit detail covered separately on this site. The remaining eight names -- ARM, TDOC, META, CVNA, QCOM, FTNT, HOOD and VKTX — priced moves from 7.3% to 11.6% and landed everywhere from close to the number (FTNT) to barely moving at all relative to what was priced (VKTX, HOOD).

What this measures, and what it does not

This is not a signal to trade options ahead of the next report — a stock that broke its priced range once has no obligation to do it again. It is a record of how often the options market's own pricing matched what each stock actually did, so both the pattern and the exceptions are visible after the fact.