Beats vs Misses, the September Check: the Asymmetry Held
The August finding re-tested on the newest crop of measured prints: beats still confirm, misses still inform.
- The August asymmetry held on the fresh late-August crop.
- Beats averaged a signed 4.90% first reaction; 4 were sold outright.
- Misses moved 0.7 times harder than beats in absolute terms.
In August we measured a full earnings season and found that beating estimates was worth a small decline on average while misses moved stocks several times harder. The late-August crop of 28 fresh reports lets us ask whether that asymmetry held. It did, with one twist: the 15 beats in this sample averaged a signed 4.90% first reaction and 4 of them were sold, while the 9 misses averaged an absolute 5.15% move — 0.7 times the beats' 7.32%.
The sharpest of each
| Company | First read | First 15 min |
|---|---|---|
| SelectQuote (SLQT) | miss | -11.35% |
| Chagee Holdings (CHA) | miss | -7.27% |
| Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) | miss | -6.12% |
| LifeVantage (LFVN) | miss | -5.58% |
| Elastic (ESTC) | beat | 25.46% |
| Okta (OKTA) | beat | 15.82% |
| Salesforce (CRM) | beat | 12.37% |
| Dell Technologies (DELL) | beat | 8.88% |
Two seasons, one asymmetry
Across both samples the mechanism is stable: a miss is information the price did not carry, while a beat is usually confirmation of one it did. The August study, measured across dozens of prints, is at the beats-versus-misses study; this page is its September check, computed the same way on the newest crop.
Do earnings beats still get sold in late 2026?
Often, yes: of 15 beats in the freshest measured sample, 4 traded lower within fifteen minutes of their own print, and the average signed reaction to a beat was 4.90%.
How much harder do misses hit than beats?
In this sample misses averaged an absolute 5.15% fifteen-minute move against 7.32% for beats — roughly 0.7 to one, matching the ratio our full August season study measured.
What data is this based on?
Every figure is our own measurement from the instant each headline crossed our news feed, computed across 28 fresh reports from late August 2026 and compared with the full-season August study.
How these numbers were measured
Every reaction figure is MoveSurge's own measurement: the price captured at the instant each headline crossed our news feed, then one and fifteen minutes later. The pipeline is described on our editorial standards page.
Sources
-
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. Reports Second Quarter Results
— PR Newswire
Q2 adjusted EPS of $3.53 on revenue of $5.59 billion; Dick's-banner comparable sales rose 4.9% while Foot Locker comparable sales fell 3.6%, and the full-year outlook was lowered.
-
SelectQuote Q4 FY2026 slides: cash flow focus amid revenue decline
— Investing.com
Q4 revenue of $322 million missed the $345 million estimate with an adjusted loss of $0.19 per share; fiscal 2027 revenue guided roughly 14% below fiscal 2026.
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