The Average Earnings Beat Was Worth -0.94% This Season, Measured
Measured from the instant each first headline crossed: misses moved several times more than beats, and the average beat was a decline.
- 25 beats, 13 misses, every reaction measured from its own print instant.
- Misses moved about 2.4 times as far as beats.
- 12 of 25 beats fell anyway; the average signed beat reaction was -0.94%.
Across 38 earnings prints we measured this season, 25 beat the consensus estimate on the first headline and 13 missed. The misses moved 15.80% on average in the first fifteen minutes, in absolute terms. The beats moved 6.58% — and the average signed reaction to a beat was -0.94%. Beating estimates, on average, was measured as a small decline.
The asymmetry is roughly 2.4 to one: a miss moved the stock about 2.4 times as far as a beat did. And direction was never guaranteed — 12 of the 25 beats fell in their first measured fifteen minutes.
The four hardest-hit misses
| Company | Print date | First 15 min |
|---|---|---|
| AdaptHealth (AHCO) | 4 August 2026 | -30.00% |
| Fulgent Genetics (FLGT) | 30 July 2026 | -27.64% |
| Myriad Genetics (MYGN) | 30 July 2026 | -25.89% |
| KinderCare Learning (KLC) | 13 August 2026 | -21.32% |
The four best-paid beats
| Company | Print date | First 15 min |
|---|---|---|
| Oscar Health (OSCR) | 6 August 2026 | 16.42% |
| Dynatrace (DT) | 5 August 2026 | 14.27% |
| Palantir (PLTR) | 3 August 2026 | 9.27% |
| GE HealthCare (GEHC) | 29 July 2026 | 9.18% |
Medians tell the same story more starkly: the median miss moved 19.93% in absolute terms, the median beat 4.09%. The market treats a miss as information and a beat as confirmation — confirmation of a price that, this season, was often already set a little too high.
How these numbers were measured
Every reaction figure on this page is MoveSurge's own measurement: the price captured at the instant each headline crossed our news feed, then one and fifteen minutes later, with traded volume compared against the same window's norm for that name. None of it is quoted from another outlet's account of the move. The pipeline that takes these measurements is described on our editorial standards page.
Do earnings misses move stocks more than beats?
In this season's measured sample, yes, by about 2.4 to one: 13 misses averaged an absolute 15.80% fifteen-minute move, 25 beats averaged 6.58%.
Does beating estimates make a stock go up?
Measurably, often no. 12 of the 25 beats in this sample fell in the first fifteen minutes, and the average signed reaction to a beat was -0.94%.
What was the largest earnings reaction of the season in this sample?
AdaptHealth: -30.00% in the first fifteen minutes after its 4 August 2026 print.
Sources
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Advance Auto Parts Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results - Morningstar
Advance Auto Parts reported Q2 2026 results on 20 August 2026: adjusted EPS $1.03 versus $0.81 expected, net sales $2.00bn missing the $2.04bn consensus, and the full-year adjusted EPS outlook raised to $2.60-3.30.
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Palantir (PLTR) earnings Q2 2026 - CNBC
Palantir reported Q2 2026 results on 3 August 2026: revenue $1.935bn up 93%, EPS $0.41 versus $0.33 expected, US commercial revenue up 149%, and full-year revenue guidance raised.
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