JPMorgan's Q3 2026 earnings brought a rare profit miss, its first drop in bond trading in two years and smaller buybacks

JPMorgan Chase reported third-quarter 2026 earnings of $5.57 a share on Tuesday, October 13, below the $5.85 analysts expected, its first profit miss since the fourth quarter of 2023. Excluding $658 million of losses on investment securities, worth 18 cents a share, it earned $5.75, still short of estimates. The stock fell about 3% before the open, recovered after the bank raised its net interest income forecast, and closed at $331.43, down 0.86%.

The results reached the MoveSurge news feed at 6:34:17 a.m. ET. JPM was at $324.06 in premarket trading, rose to $324.67 within a minute, up 0.19%, and to $326.32 after ten minutes, up 0.70%.

Bond trading fell for the first time in more than two years

Markets revenue rose 15% from a year earlier, but all of the growth came from equities. Fixed income, currencies and commodities trading fell 4% to $5.37 billion, its first year-over-year decline in more than two years, with lower revenue in commodities, rates and credit only partly offset by currencies and emerging markets. Equities trading rose 49% to $4.95 billion.

Investment-banking fees rose 14% from a year earlier but fell 8% from the second quarter, as the market for new listings cooled. Chief financial officer Jeremy Barnum said deals had been delayed rather than canceled.

Why the stock recovered from its early drop

Net interest income, the bank's largest source of revenue, rose 13% to $27.1 billion, and JPMorgan raised its 2026 forecast to about $106.2 billion from about $105.5 billion in July, above the $105.4 billion analysts had expected. Credit also held up: the card charge-off rate fell to 2.91% from 3.34% in the second quarter, and the provision for credit losses dropped to $2,743 million from $3,403 million a year earlier. Analyst Mike Mayo said the higher interest income forecast more than made up for the miss.

Smaller buybacks and Dimon's warning

Gross share repurchases fell to about $1.06 billion, 84% less than in the second quarter. Chief executive Jamie Dimon said repurchases "were reduced this quarter" while the bank's priorities for capital had not changed, and its common equity tier 1 ratio stood at 13.9%. He listed "large fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, elevated asset prices, rising interest rates and geopolitical conditions" as forces that may be manageable but for which the bank was prepared "for a wide range of outcomes."

Bank of America, which reported the next day, also saw fixed-income trading fall, while adding a $1.2 billion regulatory penalty; our report on its results covers that quarter.