Which Line Moves the Stock: the Results Print or the Guidance? 36 Cases, Measured
Results and guidance cross our news feed as separate headlines, minutes apart. Measuring each from its own instant shows how much of the move each one carries.
- The results-print move averaged 10.06%; measured from the guidance line, still 6.01%.
- In 23 of 36 reports the stock was still repricing when the guidance line crossed.
- Median gap between the two headlines: 2 minutes.
Reaction by asset (real prices)
| Asset | 2m before | At release | +1m | +15m | +1m % | +15m % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDOG Volume 417.5× normal in 15 min |
285.50 | 285.50 | 237.01 | 225.00 | -16.98% | -21.19% |
In 36 earnings reports this season, a separate guidance headline crossed our news feed after the results print, each measured from its own instant. The average move measured from the first results headline was 10.06% in absolute terms. Measured again from the moment the guidance line crossed — a median of 2 minutes later — the fifteen-minute move still averaged 6.01%.
In 23 of the 36 cases, the move measured from the guidance line's own instant was at least half the size of the move from the results print. The repricing was still in progress when guidance crossed; a reader who stopped at the EPS line was reading a story that was still being written.
The six largest post-guidance moves
| Company | 15m from results print | 15m from guidance line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doximity (DOCS) | 30.92% | 36.74% | 6 min |
| Myriad Genetics (MYGN) | -25.89% | -25.89% | under a minute |
| AdaptHealth (AHCO) | -30.00% | -22.73% | under a minute |
| Gogo (GOGO) | -16.47% | -16.47% | 2 min |
| Advance Auto Parts (AAP) | -19.98% | -13.77% | under a minute |
| Dynatrace (DT) | 14.27% | 11.57% | 2 min |
Datadog is the extreme case. The results print carried a -21.19% fifteen-minute move; the guidance line crossed roughly two minutes later, and the stock still moved -7.05% in the fifteen minutes after that line alone. Microsoft ran the other way: -1.20% measured from the results print, then 2.98% measured from a guidance line that crossed about two hours later — the second headline reversed the sign of the measured reaction.
The practical reading: the EPS line starts the move and the guidance line decides how much of it survives. Treating the two as one headline blurs the only timing information that matters in the first quarter hour.
How these numbers were measured
Every reaction figure on this page is MoveSurge's own measurement: the price captured at the instant each headline crossed our news feed, then one and fifteen minutes later, with traded volume compared against the same window's norm for that name. None of it is quoted from another outlet's account of the move. The pipeline that takes these measurements is described on our editorial standards page.
Does the guidance headline move a stock more than the EPS number?
Across 36 measured reports this season, the move from the results print averaged 10.06% and the move measured from the later guidance line still averaged 6.01%. In 23 of 36 cases the guidance-instant move was at least half the size of the results-instant move.
How long after the results does the guidance headline cross?
Median gap in this sample: 2 minutes. The spread is wide — some guidance lines cross within seconds of the results, some hours later.
Can a guidance line reverse the earnings reaction?
Yes, measurably. Microsoft's results print measured -1.20% over fifteen minutes; the guidance headline about two hours later measured 2.98% from its own instant.
Sources
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Datadog Q2 2026: Revenue Up 36% and Guidance Raised, but the Stock Fell - TradingKey
Datadog reported Q2 2026 results on 6 August 2026: revenue $1.12bn up 36%, non-GAAP EPS $0.65 versus $0.49 expected, full-year revenue guidance raised to $4.45-4.47bn; the stock nonetheless fell sharply on the day.
-
Microsoft (MSFT) Q4 earnings report 2026 - CNBC
Microsoft reported fiscal Q4 2026 results on 29 July 2026: revenue $90.01bn up 17.8%, non-GAAP EPS $4.74 versus a $4.24 estimate, GAAP EPS $4.81, with Azure revenue growing 43%.
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