Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Stock Jumps After Q3 2026: Higher Steel Prices Doubled EBITDA

Cleveland-Cliffs stock jumped on Monday, October 19, 2026, after the steelmaker reported its strongest quarter in three years and said it expects 2027 adjusted EBITDA to exceed $4 billion. The shares traded at $13.53 in the session, up 11.59% from Friday's close of $12.12, after reaching $13.64 before the open, 12.5% above that close.

The results reached the MoveSurge news feed at 06:00:31 ET. Third-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.28, above analyst estimates, while revenue of $5.61 billion fell short of the $5.72 billion analysts expected. Adjusted EBITDA, the company's measure of operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, was $612 million, more than double the $286 million of the second quarter and above the roughly $575 million Cleveland-Cliffs had guided to in July.

Higher steel prices did most of the work

Cleveland-Cliffs shipped 4.2 million net tons of steel in the quarter, only slightly more than in the second quarter. Its average price rose to $1,177 a ton, $53 more than in the second quarter and well above $1,032 a year earlier. On 4.2 million tons, $53 a ton comes to about $223 million, roughly two-thirds of the $326 million rise in adjusted EBITDA. The rest came from slightly higher volume and other changes in costs and product mix.

The swing to a $165 million profit, or $0.26 a share under standard accounting, follows a $134 million loss in the second quarter. Cleveland-Cliffs ended September with $3.2 billion of liquidity.

The 2027 outlook moved up by about $700 million in three months

In July the company's 2027 framework pointed to about $3.3 billion of adjusted EBITDA. On Monday it said 2027 should exceed $4 billion, based on contracts it has already signed and forecasts for index steel prices. Much of its automotive steel is priced under fixed-price contracts, and the company said those contracts reprice higher for 2027. For the fourth quarter it guided to about $715 million of adjusted EBITDA, higher again despite seasonal slowing and planned maintenance outages.

The company also said it expects a large debt reduction in the fourth quarter, paid for with free cash flow and the proceeds of property sales, and repeated its target of net debt below 2.5 times EBITDA by the middle of 2027.

How the stock moved, minute by minute

Most of the gain happened in early trading before 07:00 ET. When a headline on the company's 2027 cash flow outlook reached the MoveSurge news feed at 07:13:51 ET, the stock was already at $13.64. It rose 1.76% to $13.88 within a minute, then gave most of that back: the candles show $13.67 after fifteen minutes, up 0.22%, and the MoveSurge reaction reading shows $13.75 after ten minutes, up 0.81%. By mid-morning the stock was at $13.53, below its early-trading high.

The same pattern showed up in July. When the second-quarter results crossed at 06:00:45 ET on July 23, the stock jumped in the first minute and then eased, ending ten minutes later up 1.61% from the release-minute price; that report is in our Q2 2026 Cleveland-Cliffs reaction page. The stock was at $10.10 then; Monday's $13.53 is 34% higher.

What did not improve

Revenue missed estimates, and the 2027 figure depends on index price forecasts that can change. Shipments grew only modestly, which means the quarter rested on price more than volume.