Why Is Gold Down Today? Fed Rate-Hike Bets Pushed Spot Gold to Its Lowest Since August 7
Spot gold fell to its lowest since August 7 on September 14, 2026 as oil and inflation data lifted Fed rate-hike odds. Front-month gold futures were down 1.66% at 12:20 ET, and rate headlines from Sunday 23:47 ET to Monday 10:21 ET moved gold 0.108% or less in the ten minutes after each.
- Spot gold reached its lowest since August 7 on September 14, 2026; front-month gold futures were down 1.66% at $4,335.70 at 12:20 ET.
- Four rate-hike headlines between Sunday 23:47 ET and Monday 10:21 ET moved gold by 0.108% or less in the ten minutes after each; spot gold fell 0.320% in the five minutes before the Monday 05:23 ET report that it was falling.
- Friday's CPI release moved gold futures -1.046% in one minute and +0.198% after ten, as core prices rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast.
Reaction by asset (real prices)
| Asset | 2m before | At release | +1m | +10m | +1m % | +10m % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD | 4271.60 | 4271.60 | 4268.50 | 4267.00 | -0.07% | -0.11% |
Gold fell on Monday, September 14, 2026, as an oil rally and Friday's hotter-than-forecast core inflation data raised the odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase this week, and spot gold dropped to its lowest since August 7, according to Reuters. Front-month gold futures were down 1.66% at $4,335.70 at 12:20 ET, while the four rate-hike headlines that crossed MoveSurge's tape between Sunday 23:47 ET and Monday 10:21 ET each moved gold by 0.108% or less in the ten minutes after they appeared.
Gold pays no interest. When traders expect the Fed to raise rates, cash and Treasuries pay more and the dollar tends to firm, which raises the cost of owning bullion in both lost income and currency terms. On Monday the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5% for the first time since 2023, and the US dollar index was up 0.37% at 12:20 ET.
Why rate-hike bets are pushing gold down
Core consumer prices rose 0.3% in August against a 0.2% forecast, the report released on Friday, September 11, showed. Oil then rallied after Saudi Arabia shut a critical pipeline, and Brent crude futures were up 2.14% at $106.85 at 12:20 ET. With inflation already above the Fed's target, higher oil prices raise the odds of higher rates, and on Monday that effect outweighed any safe-haven demand for gold. CME Group's FedWatch tool put the probability of a quarter-point increase on Wednesday at 90.7% on Monday, 24/7 Wall St. reported.
Gold has moved against the usual safe-haven pattern on Middle East news before: on August 5 it rose 4.75% on signs that a Strait of Hormuz deal was moving closer, a session MoveSurge measured at the time.
Gold's reaction to each rate headline, measured minute by minute
Moves are measured from the price just before each headline crossed. Times are Eastern. Gold futures are the September COMEX contract; spot gold is the XAU/USD reference price.
| Date and time (ET) | Headline | Gold | 1 minute | 10 minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 08:30:03 | August PPI up 0.4%, as forecast | Gold futures (Sep) | -0.268% | -0.814% |
| Sep 11, 08:30:00 | August CPI, core 0.3% vs 0.2% forecast | Gold futures (Sep) | -1.046% | +0.198% |
| Sep 11, 08:32:00 | Traders price about 90% odds of a September increase | Gold futures (Sep) | +0.448% | +1.014% |
| Sep 13, 23:47:39 | Gold slips as oil rally fans rate-hike bets | Gold futures (Sep) | +0.025% | +0.023% |
| Sep 14, 05:23:34 | Gold falls on growing Fed rate-hike bets | Spot gold | +0.010% | -0.024% |
| Sep 14, 06:00:00 | Fed set for its first increase under Warsh | Spot gold | -0.046% | +0.009% |
| Sep 14, 10:21:00 | Fed rate hike odds climb to 90% | Gold futures (Sep) | -0.073% | -0.108% |
Friday's first reaction did not last. Gold futures fell 1.046% in the minute after the CPI release and stood 0.198% above their pre-release price ten minutes later, and they rose 1.014% in the ten minutes after the 08:32 ET report on hike odds.
The decline from Sunday night into Monday built between headlines. Spot gold had already fallen 0.320% in the five minutes before the Monday 05:23:34 ET report that it was falling on Fed bets, and it moved 0.024% in the ten minutes after it. The largest reaction to any of those four headlines, 0.108% over ten minutes, followed the Monday 10:21 ET report that hike odds had climbed to 90%.
Gold in September, dated
- September 3, 15:31 ET: Gold +2.02% on the session as lower US yields lifted equities and gold.
- September 9, 15:53 ET: Gold +1.0% as oil and gold rose on geopolitical news.
- September 10, 08:30 ET: August producer prices match their forecast; gold -0.814% in ten minutes.
- September 11, 08:30 ET: Core CPI comes in above its forecast; gold futures -1.046% in one minute.
- September 14, 00:28 ET: Gold -0.42% on the session as Strait of Hormuz risk lifts oil.
- September 14, 08:24 ET: Gold -1.4% after talks on Hormuz are postponed.
- September 14, 10:32 ET: Gold -1.84% as the dollar firms and the 10-year yield reaches 5%.
- September 14, 12:20 ET: Front-month gold futures -1.66% on the session.
Why is gold price down today?
Gold fell on September 14, 2026 as an oil rally and hotter-than-forecast core inflation data raised the odds of a Fed rate increase this week to about 90%. Spot gold reached its lowest since August 7, and front-month gold futures were down 1.66% at 12:20 ET.
Did rate-hike headlines move gold on Sunday night and Monday?
Only slightly. Four rate-hike headlines that crossed MoveSurge's tape between Sunday 23:47 ET and Monday 10:21 ET moved gold by 0.108% or less in the ten minutes after each, and spot gold had already fallen 0.320% in the five minutes before the Monday 05:23 ET report that it was falling.
How did gold react to the August CPI report?
Gold futures fell 1.046% in the minute after the 08:30 ET release on September 11, when core CPI rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast. Ten minutes after the release they were 0.198% above their pre-release price.
When is the Fed decision that gold traders are pricing?
The Fed announces its decision at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, September 16. CME Group's FedWatch tool put the probability of a quarter-point increase at 90.7% on September 14.
Sources
-
Gold falls to over one-month low as oil rally, inflation data boost rate hike bets
— Bangkok Post (Reuters)
Spot gold fell to its lowest since August 7 as an oil rally and stronger-than-expected inflation data bolstered expectations of a Fed rate increase.
-
Gold slips as oil rally fans rate hike bets ahead of Fed meeting
— CNBC
Gold fell on September 14 as an oil rally fanned bets on a Fed rate increase ahead of the policy meeting.
-
Gold prices today, Monday, September 14, 2026: Gold sinks following new attacks on Saudi pipeline and more
— Yahoo Finance
Gold sank on Monday after new attacks on a Saudi pipeline.
-
CPI inflation report August 2026
— CNBC
August CPI rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% on the year, in line with estimates; core CPI rose 0.3%, above the 0.2% estimate.
-
Treasuries Fall After Higher-Than-Expected Core CPI
— Bloomberg
After the August core CPI beat, traders priced about a 90% chance of a Fed rate increase at the September meeting.
-
Chances of First Fed Rate Hike Since 2023 Now Over 90%
— 24/7 Wall St.
CME FedWatch put the probability of a 25-basis-point increase on Wednesday at 90.7%, and 85% of economists in a September 14 Reuters poll expected it.
-
10-year Treasury yield tops 5% as oil surges and diesel hits new all-time high
— NBC News
Diesel prices hit a record after Saudi Arabia shut a critical pipeline and talks on the Strait of Hormuz were postponed.
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