10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5% for the First Time Since 2023 as Fed Hike Odds Reach 90.7%

The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5% on Monday, September 14, 2026, for the first time since 2023, and the first headline reporting it crossed MoveSurge's tape at 10:18:40 ET. The crossing itself moved currencies very little: in the ten minutes after a 10:20:17 ET report, USD/JPY rose 0.069% and EUR/USD fell 0.042%, while in the single minute after Friday's inflation report USD/JPY rose 0.321%.

The yield rose as much as 4 basis points to 5.01% on the day, according to Bloomberg, and had eased to 4.951% by 12:20 ET, below Friday's close of 4.975%, according to Yahoo Finance data. Gold futures fell 0.108% in the ten minutes after a 10:21 ET report that the odds of a Fed rate increase this week had climbed to 90%.

Why the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5%

The August consumer price report, released at 08:30 ET on Friday, September 11, showed core prices up 0.3% on the month against a 0.2% forecast. Headline prices rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% on the year, both in line with forecasts. After the release, traders priced about a 90% chance that the Fed raises rates at its September meeting, Bloomberg reported.

Oil added to that pressure. Saudi Arabia shut a critical pipeline, talks on the future of the Strait of Hormuz were postponed, and the national average price of diesel set a record on Monday, NBC News reported. Higher fuel prices feed the inflation the Fed is trying to slow, which lifts the rate traders expect the Fed to set and the yield investors demand to lend to the US government for ten years. Bloomberg also tied the Treasury selloff to heavy borrowing needs from both the government and companies.

Markets at 12:20 ET on September 14

Levels and session changes are from Yahoo Finance data. The dollar gained against both the yen and the euro, oil rose and gold fell, the combination that higher expected interest rates tend to produce.

Rate headlines measured minute by minute, August 19 to September 14

Moves are measured from the price just before each headline crossed. Treasury futures prices move opposite to yields, so a falling futures price means a rising yield. Times are Eastern.

The largest first-minute moves in the table followed the August CPI report, whose core reading came in above its forecast: 10-year Treasury futures fell 0.279% and gold futures fell 1.046% within sixty seconds. Both first-minute moves had faded or reversed ten minutes later, when futures stood 0.044% below their pre-release price and gold 0.198% above it.

The ECB's September 10 increase matched its 2.50% forecast, and EUR/USD moved 0.015% in the first minute. Treasury's August 19 announcement that it would double its longer-dated buybacks changed what traders expected it to do, and 10-year futures moved 0.115% within a minute. On Monday the 5% headline arrived with the yield already within a few basis points of that level at Friday's close, and USD/JPY moved 0.044% in its first minute.

What the Fed is expected to decide on September 16

The Federal Reserve announces its decision at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, September 16, after a two-day meeting. CME Group's FedWatch tool put the probability of a quarter-point increase at 90.7% on Monday, and 85% of economists in a Reuters poll published the same day expected one, 24/7 Wall St. reported. An increase would move the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00% from 3.50%-3.75% and would be the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, who took the job in May, Reuters reported.

A month earlier, after a July payrolls report that showed jobs falling, the market priced the September decision close to a coin toss.

Timeline

1. September 11, 08:30 ET: The August CPI report shows core prices up 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast.
2. September 11, 08:32 ET: Traders price about a 90% chance of a Fed increase at the September meeting.
3. September 14, 06:00 ET: Reuters reports the Fed is set for its first rate increase under Warsh.
4. September 14, 09:41 ET: Gold falls to its lowest since August 7 as oil rallies.
5. September 14, 10:18 ET: The 10-year Treasury yield reaches 5% for the first time since 2023.
6. September 14, 12:20 ET: The 10-year yield stands at 4.951%.
7. September 16, 14:00 ET: The Fed is scheduled to announce its rate decision.