September 2026 jobs report: payrolls rose 29,000, and gold's first-minute jump did not last the session

The US economy added 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September 2026, far below the 84,000 that economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, October 2, 2026, and in the first minute gold rose 0.778%, EUR/USD rose 0.167%, USD/JPY fell 0.313% and the 10-year Treasury note future rose 0.403%.

All four moves fit a weak report: the dollar fell, bond prices rose and yields dropped. Gold was still 0.6% above its pre-release level after 15 minutes, then gave the gain back and finished Friday down 0.95% against its prior close.

September 2026 nonfarm payrolls: actual, consensus and prior

The consensus figure is the Dow Jones survey reported by CNBC. A Bloomberg survey cited by Yahoo Finance put the payrolls forecast at 85,000. The gap between the two surveys is small next to a miss of roughly 55,000 jobs.

The revisions changed the story of the summer

The revisions carried more information than the headline. A month earlier, the August report had shown a gain of 162,000 jobs and had revised July from a loss of 23,000 to a gain of 21,000. On those numbers hiring looked to be picking up, and the September report took most of that back. August was cut to 133,000 and July was revised to a loss of 10,000, so July's sign has now changed twice in two months. Together the two months show 60,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.

Wages were soft as well. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% from August and 3% from a year earlier. Firm wages beside a weak payroll count would have kept inflation worries alive. With both soft, bonds, the euro, the yen and gold all moved in one direction when the report landed.

Measured market reaction to the jobs report

A rise in the note future is a rise in price, which means the 10-year yield fell. Gold was the largest mover of the four in the first minute and the one that gave everything back. Its session change of -0.95% means the metal lost more over the day than it gained on the release.

Why the first read and the Fed's read differed

Traders in the first minute set 29,000 against the forecast. Federal Reserve officials set it against the pace of hiring needed to keep unemployment steady. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack told PBS later on Friday that the report was consistent with recent hiring. She cited an average of 41,000 jobs a month over the past 12 months and said that pace was largely in line with her estimate of the break-even level, the job growth needed to keep unemployment steady. She said there is still time to weigh the next policy move and that officials will have more information before their meeting at the end of October. Reuters reported that comments from officials during the week indicated no action was likely at the October 27-28 meeting.

Against a consensus of 84,000, September was a large miss, but against a break-even pace near 41,000 it was a modest shortfall in a labor market Hammack described as stable. CNBC reported that traders saw the soft figures as further support for the Fed staying put in October. Gold's first-minute gain anticipated a policy shift. With officials signalling no change in October, the metal ended the day lower.