Apple guides to 47%-48% gross margin with tariff refunds adding one point

Apple expects fiscal fourth-quarter gross margin of 47% to 48%, including an approximately one-percentage-point contribution from tariff refunds, CFO Kevan Parekh said on the company’s July 30 earnings call, according to Reuters. The guidance quantifies how government reimbursements are entering the profitability outlook for Apple’s product-heavy September quarter.

The expected refund contribution is smaller than the benefit recorded in the June quarter. Apple’s quarterly results release reported a company gross margin of 50.1%, including a favorable impact of approximately two percentage points from tariff refunds. Diluted earnings per share was $2.02, including an $0.11 contribution from those refunds.

Subtracting the guided one-point contribution arithmetically produces a range of approximately 46% to 47%, although Apple did not present that calculation as adjusted guidance. The disclosed figures show that refunds remain a material component of the margin outlook but are expected to contribute less than in the June quarter.

Revenue guidance and supply constraints

Parekh forecast September-quarter revenue growth of 9% to 11% from a year earlier, below the 12% Wall Street estimate cited by Reuters. He also projected mid-teens iPhone revenue growth, compared with the 17.6% analyst target reported by Reuters.

Apple separately disclosed significant supply constraints and limited near-term flexibility to address them. CEO Tim Cook identified an industry shortage of advanced chipmaking capacity used for Apple silicon as the principal June-quarter constraint, particularly for Mac, and said product demand had exceeded the company’s expectations. The disclosures establish supply availability as an operating factor behind the current outlook, without quantifying how much additional September-quarter revenue Apple could have generated with more capacity.

Apple reported June-quarter revenue of $109.4 billion, up 16% from a year earlier, with iPhone, Mac and Services each setting June-quarter revenue records. Reuters reported that iPhone revenue increased 21.7% to $54.25 billion and Mac revenue increased 28.7% to $10.35 billion, both above analyst estimates. Services revenue of $30.74 billion was below the $31.22 billion estimate cited by Reuters.

What traders should monitor

The next relevant disclosures are Apple’s realized September-quarter gross margin, the final tariff-refund contribution, revenue growth against the 9%-11% range and management’s update on advanced-chip availability. Segment results will also show whether constrained Mac supply persisted and whether Services revenue returned above the external benchmark cited for the June quarter. Apple has not said in the linked sources whether the tariff-refund benefit will continue beyond the guided period.