Options Priced vs. Actual: July 30, 2026 Earnings Scoreboard

Before a company reports earnings, the options market prices in an expected move -- how far the stock is likely to swing, derived from what at-the-money puts and calls cost to trade. Six stocks reported after the close on 30 July 2026. Comparing what was priced against what happened shows how often that number was close, and how often it was not.

The scoreboard

"Actual ÷ priced" is the realized move divided by what the options market had priced in; a reading near 1.0× means the market got the size right, regardless of direction. FSLR and COIN landed almost exactly on the number the options market paid for. RIVN barely moved at all relative to what was priced, at only 0.08× -- anyone who bought options ahead of that report paid for volatility that never showed up.

The three that broke the model

AXT, a compound-semiconductor supplier, was priced for a 15.3% move -- already a large number -- and moved 42.45%, 2.77 times that. Second-quarter revenue of $47.6 million came in far above the $34.8 million analysts expected, on record demand for indium phosphide wafers used in AI data-center optical links.

Amazon was priced for a 4.6% move and gapped 12.53%, 2.72 times the number the options market paid for, after cloud (AWS) growth accelerated well beyond what the priced range anticipated -- the size of the reaction argues the options market underestimated how much this particular report mattered, not that the beat itself was unprecedented.

Roblox was priced for an 11.0% swing and fell 22.99% at the open, 2.09 times the priced move. Revenue came in at $1.47 billion against a $1.59 billion estimate, and third-quarter bookings guidance points to a 14% to 18% year-over-year decline. Shares extended the drop to as much as 27% intraday as analysts responded with downgrades.

What this measures, and what it does not

None of this is a signal to trade options ahead of the next report; a stock that broke its priced range once has no obligation to do it again. It is a record of how often the options market's own pricing matched what a stock actually did, ticker by ticker, so the pattern -- and the exceptions -- are visible after the fact rather than only in a forecast nobody checks.